Background

Kalshi is a U.S.-based, federally regulated prediction market platform founded in 2018. Unlike crypto-based prediction markets, Kalshi operates using traditional financial systems. It received approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market, allowing users to trade event contracts on a variety of real-world outcomes. Kalshi emphasizes its regulatory compliance, aiming to offer users a safe environment for speculation on events ranging from economic data to election results. Despite its regulated status, like any financial platform, Kalshi could potentially face risks impacting user deposits.

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on the first significant adverse event affecting user funds by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM UTC:

• Nothing horrible happens: Nothing horrible happens

• Internal fraud/embezzlement: Funds are intentionally misused, stolen, or embezzled by insiders

• Bank or financial partner failure: Financial institution holding Kalshi user deposits collapses, causing significant losses

• Cybersecurity breach/hack: Security failure or cyberattack causing substantial loss or freezing of user funds

• Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure: Authorities freeze or seize user assets

• Other: Any significant adverse event not fitting above categories.

If multiple events occur, resolution will be based on the earliest significant event. If no events occur by 2030, resolve to "Nothing horrible happens." I will use my best judgment in case of ambiguity. Merely controversial market resolutions will not count.