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MANIFOLD
When will Kalshi launch a crypto platform?
15
Ṁ10kṀ21k
Apr 16
18%
2025
30%
2026 H1
23%
2026 H2
12%
2027
17%
After 2027 or never

Kalshi has just hired a Head of Crypto. When will they launch a platform that allows you to place trades via crypto?

  • Update 2025-08-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Crypto deposits alone do not count.

    • A qualifying launch must use crypto for trade settlement (not just for funding accounts).

  • Update 2026-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tokenized contracts traded through third-party platforms (e.g., Solana/DFlow/Jupiter) may not count as Kalshi launching a "crypto platform." The creator is uncertain whether this qualifies.

  • Update 2026-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Tokenized contracts traded through third-party platforms (e.g., Jupiter) do not count as Kalshi launching a crypto platform, because Kalshi did not launch a new platform — Jupiter did.

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Closing the market while we litigate resolution...

bought Ṁ500 YES

@SG I think this market can resolve. Kalshi launched tokenized event contracts on Solana on December 1, 2025, which use crypto for trade settlement, not just deposits
- Kalshi contracts are tokenized as SPL tokens on Solana via DFlow and Jupiter

- Trades are executed and settled on-chain in USDC

- Winning tokens are redeemed in stablecoins

- This is crypto trade settlement, not just funding an account with crypto


Look at this market for example: https://jup.ag/prediction/POLY-34051
It was also announced on kalshi's newsroom: https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-solana-tokenized-predictions


@prismatic Did they launch a "crypto platform", though? I think this option is trading so low because traders do not believe tokenized contracts traded through other platforms count.

@SG Yeah, it's a technicality, but I bet on it based on:
Technical definition:
> Launch here I assume, refers to product launch, which is defined as "the process of introducing a new product for sale for the first time and attracting people's attention to it" (https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/product-launch).

I think this is satisfied based off their newsroom announcement https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-solana-tokenized-predictions. A new product is offered.

> When will they launch a platform that allows you to place trades via crypto?
- Kalshi contracts are tokenized as SPL tokens
- Trades are executed and settled on-chain in USDC

This was also specifically bolstered by the resolution clarification that "Something that uses crypto for trade settlement or something like that." Here, "something" is quite ambiguous, but I believe this word specifically enables tokenized contracts to justify launching a crypto platform.

On an abstract level:
This is, for all intents and purposes, a platform that allows you to place trades via crypto. They also specifically mention in their launch video (took a SS below) that frontends are powered by Kalshi


I think the main argument against my view is that this is a third-party and not Kalshi's platform, but I don't think this is true. Kalshi is the one who actively built and promoted this. They have their own incentives (hired a head of crypto guy, announced on their own blog, not on DFlow/Jupiter, funded it with their own builder grants, builder code system, etc.). The main thing tho is that DFlow and Jupiter are integration partners. They are NOT independent actors who wrapped Kalshi without permission. I view DFlow/Jupiter as the distribution rails for Kalshi's idea and execution.

@SG yes, it makes sense to call that a crypto platform, as the trade is done in crypto and profits are given in crypto. Solana is converted to USDC and used for trading. I think this is clearly a "crypto platform" (where users can trade fully in crypto).

@100Anonymous Yes, but the platform is Jupiter. Kalshi did not launch a new platform.

@SG Kalshi integrated Jupiter into a new platform which I think should count.

You can deposit crypto, does that count?

@nikki No, this functionality has existed for a while.

@SG What is a crypto platform then?

@nikki Something that uses crypto for trade settlement or something like that.