One of the specified companies—OpenAI, Google—publicly confirms, or is confirmed through credible reporting, to have suffered a data breach involving the unauthorized public disclosure of non-public user data (ChatGPT/Gemini).

For the market to resolve to YES, all of the following conditions must be met:

• Nature of the Data: The leak must involve sensitive, non-public data, such as:

  • Private user conversations or prompts.

  • Personally Identifiable Information (PII), including names, email addresses, hashed passwords, payment information, etc.

  • Confidential corporate data submitted via API services.

  • Exclusion: This does not include training data that was already public (e.g., content scraped from the web).

• Scale of the Leak: The leak must affect at least 1 million unique accounts or users.

• Source of Confirmation: The event must be confirmed either by an official statement from the company involved or by corroborating reports from at least two major, reputable technology or mainstream news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Verge, The Wall Street Journal, TechCrunch, WIRED, etc.). A rumor on a dark web forum alone is not sufficient.

This market will resolve to NO if no leak meeting all of the above criteria is publicly confirmed before January 1, 2030. In case of ambiguity, the market creator will rely on the consensus of credible news sources to determine if the criteria have been met.