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MANIFOLD
Biological computing becomes interesting before 2031?
5
Ṁ250Ṁ36
2030
51%
chance

Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2031, a credible report shows that a company earned >= $50M USD in revenue attributable to biological-computing products or services in a year.

Note:

  • A year = Over a fiscal year or over any trailing 12-month period of actual (not projected or run rate) revenue.

  • Report must be published before Jan 1, 2031. (e.g. FY2030 report released in early 2031 does not count).

  • Resolves NO if January 1, 2031 passes with no such report.

  • For a company whose primary business is biological computing, total company revenue counts. For any other company, only the segment it explicitly discloses as biological-computing revenue counts.

What count as biological computing:

  • living-neuron/organoid systems (e.g. Cortical Labs, FinalSpark).

What doesn't count:

  • DNA/molecular data storage, synthetic biology logic circuits used purely as biosensors, and neuromorphic silicon chips.

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