Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production?
Which Humanoid Robot will first go into production?
15
1kṀ502
2030
33%
Tesla-Optimus
2%
Boston Dynamics - Atlas
2%
Figure AI - Figure 01
21%
Digit- Agility Robotics
41%
Other

Resolution based on first company to start deliveries of the humanoid robot to consumers. In addition,

  1. The Robot should be available for purchase to anyone barring parties prohibited by legalities.

  2. Preorders or deliveries only to specific companies do not count as that does not fit the spirit of the question which is concerned with production.

  3. 1000 or more separate units sold and delivered to at least 10 distinct customers based on publicly available information would count as being in production and would qualify for resolution given future plans of the company to satisfy the first point.

If none deliver - n/a.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
9mo

sold Ṁ0 Tesla-Optimus YES10mo

GeoHotz coming in hot

11mo

@notarealuser resolution is a bit vague - are we talking delivers direct to consumer or to industry/commerical partners?

11mo

@OneGuy I think any should work.

11mo

@notarealuser what's the point of this market then if Agility's robots are already working in Amazon warehouses?

11mo

@notarealuser resolution should probably be more specific, consider how it's done here:

11mo

@Bair Agreed, that’s why I was asking the question. Digit has already been ‘delivered’ to Amazon for small scale pilots. They even have and advanced automation program for other enterprises looking to test and implement humanoid robot automation.

You could argue digit is already ‘delivering’ - then again, their new facilities are for commercial scale production rather than small pilots or testing.

11mo

@Bair Link to Agility Engagement Program where companies can already look to procure a Digit or ‘Robot as a service’ https://agilityrobotics.com/engagement

11mo

I think it is fair to say that the engagement program is not selling the robot, and at best pre-orders.

Quoting the website:

"The Agility Engagement Program is designed for companies that want to be at the forefront of our technology. The program gives your company first rights to the latest version of our products, and vital input to the continued development of our solution."

11mo

@Bair I will add to the Resolution Criteria that anyone should be able to purchase the robots, as that is what in effect going into production is.

bought Ṁ30 Other YES

Agility Robotic have partnerships with Amazon and last year announced they’ve already commenced work on a robot production facility in Oregon that will produce 10k robots a year at its peak production.

https://agilityrobotics.com/news/2023/opening-robofab-worlds-first-factory-for-humanoid-robotsnbsp-xxna2-g9mhr-rnk52

11mo

@OneGuy added the option.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules