When will Boston Dynamics start selling their new Atlas humanoid robot to customers?

Question

This market will resolve based on the earliest date that Boston Dynamics begins selling their new Atlas humanoid robot (or a direct descendant of the Atlas design) to customers at scale, meaning either:

They have started accepting orders for Atlas-based robots from 10 or more distinct customers, OR

They have received cumulative orders for 1,000 or more Atlas-based robot units, regardless of the number of customers, OR

They have publicly listed an order form with pricing information for Atlas-based robots on their official website, indicating the robots are available for purchase by customers.

For the purposes of this market, "distinct customers" means separate legal entities, not individuals within an organization.

The start of sales must be confirmed by an official Boston Dynamics source such as a press release, company blog post, statement by a company executive, or the public availability of an order form with pricing on their website.

Design changes and iterations to the Atlas robot are expected and do not impact resolution, as long as the robot being sold is recognizably a direct evolution of the current Atlas design.

If neither of the "at scale" sales criteria have been met by Jan 1, 2029, the market will resolve to the "2029 or later / Never" option. If either criteria is met prior to that date, the market will resolve to the year corresponding to the sales start date.

Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Sales to Hyundai (Boston Dynamics' parent company) do not count toward resolution criteria.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 2027, followed by 2028 and 2026 are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Jul 22, 2026).