Related:
Clarification of "wild animal": a wild animal counts if it is of a type or killed in a fashion that is atypical for Ohioans. So a deer shot in the woods from a tree stand doesn't count. A deer butchered on someone's lawn after it gets caught in their fence does. As a guiding principle, this question is attempting to address social norms rather than legality so hunting licenses, e.g., are not relevant. (When framing it, I had in mind the claims that ducks and geese in local parks were being trapped and eaten.)
Due to the inevitable subjectivity of resolution, I will not be participating in this market.
@Snarflak I think you’re joking but just in case I want to say this would be pretty unethical in my view (as in, it could make a lot of people’s lives worse for a pretty tiny benefit to yourself)
@Harlan I wasn't implying that I would do it, but that Trump supporters would do it.
And then there was the $5,000 bounty posted on X by the conservative intellectual and political activist Chris Rufo for “anyone who can provide my team with hard, verifiable evidence that Haitian migrants are eating cats in Springfield, Ohio. Deadline is Sunday. Go.”
And a bunch of replies saying they would eat a cat for $5000.
@Snarflak I think those replies were all joking, and Rufo did clarify he wouldn't pay out his bounty for that.
@Snarflak How many Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio support Donald Trump? Zero? Less than that?
Wild animals OR pets being only 5 points higher than pets alone seems nuts to me.
https://manifold.markets/njmkw/will-there-be-conclusive-evidence-o-6ufxfw22wy
@njmkw yeah, this would be easy, any Ohioan just need to offer their Haitian neighbor some deer jerky on camera.
@NickAllen Per my clarification, wild animals killed an eaten in a socially normative way don’t count. If someone fooled a Haitian into eating cat meat on camera (“haha, do you know what that was?”) I would have to think really hard though.
@njmkw Sorry, that’s what I meant. But still, a Haitian immigrant eating a pet in Ohio in the 19th century still counts?
@yum In theory yes, but I can’t imagine how you would come up with something qualifying as conclusive evidence of that! But an episode from 2018 or something would count.
@njmkw We have evidence of everything that satisfies the question except for the migrant being Haitian. We have scores of right wing journalists descending on Springfield with bounties. We have hearsay of this happening. I say odds are greater than 20%
@BrandonRoney I agree but I’m not entering this market to maintain the appearance of neutrality on resolution.
@njmkw I believe some top twitter CSI analysts are enhancing and outlining bone structure as we speak:
@Joshua Chris Rufo spreading misinformation without doing proper vetting? I never thought I'd see the day.