Will there be an official ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war lasting at least one week before the end of 2023? | Manifold Markets

Will there be an official ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war lasting at least one week before the end of 2023?

Dec 31

87

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

A ceasefire beginning in 20223 and ending in 2024 counts. A ceasefire announced in 2023 that will not begin until 2024 does not count. NB: Orthodox Christians in both Russia and Ukraine celebrate Christmas on January 7.

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Does capitulation of either side count as ceasefire?

Nicola Wilsonis predicting YES at 64%

@Yev Yes. Surrender counts.

Manifold in the WildBot

Will there be an official ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war lasting at least one week before the end of 2023?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ57/Ṁ100 NO at 40% (cancelled)

GGou sold Ṁ181 NO from 37% to 41%

Kit Redgrave bought Ṁ100 NO from 39% to 37%

Jf P bought Ṁ12 YES at 39%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ28 NO at 39%

Tharon bought Ṁ100 YES from 36% to 40%

johnleoks bought Ṁ100 YES from 34% to 36%

higherLEVELING sold Ṁ47 NO from 33% to 34%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 29%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 43%

Benjamin Ikuta bought Ṁ5 NO at 33%

mvdm created limit order for Ṁ164 NO at 49%

mvdm created limit order for Ṁ100 YES at 28%

mvdm sold Ṁ33 YES from 34% to 33%

mvdm sold Ṁ19 YES from 35% to 34%

Luca Masters bought Ṁ100 YES from 34% to 35%

Jimmy bought Ṁ150 YES from 27% to 34%

Peter Tissen bought Ṁ42 NO from 28% to 27%

Mikola Samardak (niksaak) bought Ṁ100 NO from 30% to 28%

Mark Henry filled limit order Ṁ200/Ṁ200 NO at 35%

Mark Henry created limit order for Ṁ76 YES at 25%

Ben Mc Gloin sold Ṁ10 NO at 30%

Ben Mc Gloin bought Ṁ10 NO at 30%

Anton Kostserau bought Ṁ15 NO at 30%

camille furius bought Ṁ10 NO at 30%

Camel Wrangler bought Ṁ10 NO at 30%

Camel Wrangler bought Ṁ10 NO from 31% to 30%

Camel Wrangler bought Ṁ10 NO at 31%

Camel Wrangler bought Ṁ10 NO at 31%

Camel Wrangler bought Ṁ10 NO at 31%

Camel Wrangler bought Ṁ10 NO at 31%

Purist bought Ṁ20 YES at 31%

Justin Adams bought Ṁ10 NO at 31%

mvdm bought Ṁ50 YES from 28% to 31%

mvdm bought Ṁ50 YES from 26% to 28%

mvdm bought Ṁ50 YES from 23% to 26%

Lukas bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23%

Jonathan Ray created limit order for Ṁ421 NO at 32% (cancelled)

Jonathan Ray bought Ṁ100 YES from 19% to 24%

Benjamin Ikuta bought Ṁ1,000 NO from 36% to 19%

Charlie bought Ṁ60 NO from 38% to 36%

Mark Henry bought Ṁ25 NO from 39% to 38%

Nico D sold Ṁ6 YES at 39%

Mark Henry bought Ṁ40 NO from 40% to 39%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ36/Ṁ100 YES at 40% (cancelled)

Mark Henry bought Ṁ55 NO from 40% to 38%

Mark Henry bought Ṁ95 NO from 43% to 40%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ22/Ṁ32 YES at 43% (cancelled)

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ33/Ṁ100 YES at 42% (cancelled)

Mark Henry bought Ṁ200 NO from 47% to 40%

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