Will Kalshi successfully take action against an insider trading case? | Manifold

Will Kalshi successfully take action against an insider trading case?

14

Ṁ1kṀ2.4k

2027

34%

chance

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ALL

May be done by a government or Kalshi itself. Ongoing cases are allowed, but some penalty or successful lawsuit must happen. The insider trading incident must have occured by the end of 2026.

Clarifications:

A private Kalshi investigation and banning a user counts for the purpose of this market. If someone leaks the release date of Claude 6 to an insider trader, and Anthropic fires them, that does not count.

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You mean insider prediction trading on Kalshi specifically right? Not trading of Kalshi stock or other stocks?

@xjp Correct

@nikki Does it have to be a lawsuit or legal process? Would an internal investigation and firing an employee count?

@xjp Kalshi or a regulator must take an action. An internal investigation does not count

@nikki Would a private Kalshi investigation and banning a user count?

bought Ṁ50 NO

@xjp yeah that was going to be my question—does an account ban count as a penalty.

@xjp An account ban done by Kalshi does count

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Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

+3% 1d76% chance

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Maryland?

Will the government file a market manipulation/insider trading case involving Polymarket or Kalshi by April 15?

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey?

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?

Will Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?

Will the Third Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

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Will Kalshi accept payment for order flow by EOY 2027?

Related questions

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Maryland?

Will the government file a market manipulation/insider trading case involving Polymarket or Kalshi by April 15?

Will Kalshi beat Polymarket?

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against New Jersey?

Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against Nevada?

Will Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?

Will the Third Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?

Will Kalshi accept payment for order flow by EOY 2027?

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