Resolution criteria

• This resolves YES if Kalshi prevails in all current appellate cases on CEA preemption against state gambling enforcement, defined as:

  • Third Circuit (New Jersey): the court affirms the district court’s preliminary injunction protecting Kalshi from NJ enforcement or dismisses the appeal in a way that leaves that injunction in place. Docket: Kalshiex LLC v. Mary Jo Flaherty et al, No. 25-1922. (dockets.justia.com)

  • Fourth Circuit (Maryland): the court reverses the district court’s denial of a preliminary injunction and grants (or directs entry of) injunctive protection preventing Maryland enforcement, or otherwise adopts Kalshi’s preemption position to equivalent effect. Docket: Kalshiex LLC v. John Martin et al, No. 25-1892. (dockets.justia.com)

• This resolves NO if any listed appeal results in: (a) vacatur of NJ’s injunction, (b) affirmance of MD’s denial, (c) a ruling that allows state enforcement against Kalshi’s CFTC-regulated exchange, or (d) dismissal that leaves an adverse order in place (e.g., Kalshi voluntarily dismisses its MD appeal).

• “Final appellate disposition” means after resolution of any timely petitions for rehearing or rehearing en banc and issuance of the mandate. Only the two dockets above are in-scope; later-filed preemption appeals are excluded unless the creator updates the market to include them.

Background

• District courts split on preemption over sports/event contracts: Nevada (Apr 9, 2025) and New Jersey (Apr 28, 2025) granted Kalshi preliminary injunctions against state enforcement; Maryland (Aug 1, 2025) denied one. (docs.justia.com, playnj.com, law.justia.com)

• The NJ appeal is active in the Third Circuit (No. 25-1922); briefing includes multiple amici, with oral argument set for Sept 8, 2025. (dockets.justia.com, sbcamericas.com)

• The MD appeal was noticed Aug 6, 2025, in the Fourth Circuit (No. 25-1892). (dockets.justia.com)

• Separately, on May 5, 2025, the CFTC dropped its D.C. Circuit appeal over Kalshi’s election contracts—contextual but not a state preemption case. (reuters.com, cnbc.com)

Considerations

• These are preliminary-injunction appeals; merits decisions in the district courts could follow later and are out of scope here. (docs.justia.com, playnj.com, law.justia.com)

• Settlements or mootness: a dismissal that preserves the favorable injunction (NJ) counts as a win; a dismissal that leaves the adverse order intact (MD) does not. Traders should watch the dockets for rehearing or mandate timing. (dockets.justia.com)