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arb https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/short-fuse-will-japan-experience-a

Shindel's Law holds up once again: no matter how improbable, no matter how clear the criteria are, the resolution of a market will always trend towards gray area.

@bens omg that's a good one

@bens Does anyone seriously claim this is a large disaster affecting Japan?

@nikki Wikipedia reports 21 injuries or "heat-related illnesses" reported during evacuations. There was 1 reported death in Mie, a woman who drove off a cliff while evacuating in her vehicle https://news.livedoor.com/article/detail/29269981/

5 hours left but I can't help but feel this is a NO.

Even in Russia there were no reported deaths so far, and limited injuries. If anything, it's shocking that such a powerful earthquake resulted in such minimal catastrophe. It's like in the top 10 of strongest earthquakes ever recorded.

@No_uh "5 hours left" ah shit what have you done?

@bens LOL nothing!! I just meant I wasn't trying to pressure nikki to resolve the market before it closes or anything. Just giving my 2¢ as it nears the end

I will ignore whatever Ryo claims. It is quite likely this market will resolve NO since there are no reports of casualties in Japan. Only a reference to Japan will count, not Russia.

going to bed: this from the nyt website on mobile, about the 4th thing down. It sctually doesn't even mention Japan on the headline or byline

On average, about 50 to 80 earthquakes are detected globally each day

@GazDownright are there 50-80 daily earthquakes that could cause tsunamis affecting Japan?

@MachiNi obviously not lol

@No_uh right, but then I wonder how relevant that stat is to the question below

@MachiNi do you mean Suicidoo's question or the market question?

@No_uh yes. Your answer is better.

How did she know about that?

@gonnarekt see above

@gonnarekt Besides Gaz's response, the answer is: she didn't. Even a broken clock is right once (or twice) a day.

Besides the fact the supposed date was eaelier this month, over twenty days ago, she wildly overpredicted the tsunami size. The 2011 one dwarfs today's, even the ones that hit the closest area in Russia, honestly. And this supposed disasrous one was to be 3x bigger than the 2011 one...

no need to buy into doomsaying :)

Question: if damage is limited and there are very few (if any) casualties as a result of these tsunamis, does this still resolve yes or no?

@No_uh at this point I believe the modal outcome is that Ryo declares her prediction correct despite only small (<2m) waves hitting Japan. Not sure how that will resolve. Certainly a “mega tsunami” remains unlikely (but stay safe out there!)

@Sketchy i agree that Ryo will declare herself spot on with her prediction lol. as for how this should resolve i can't say. After today I will weigh in on how I feel I guess lol, but regardless I trust nikki to do what they feel best

@No_uh resolves no if only a few casualties

@nikki few? Im not sure if I see any casualty count in the resolution criteria

@PoliticalEconomyPK you're not sure or you don't?

for reference there are comments below which list things which would qualify. (in the categories listed in the description, like former earthquakes)

@nikki criteria in the description is front page of the NYT? Has this changed, or will you actually be making a subject assessment of whether it counts as a disaster?

@PanhandleSubmersed id like to add to this question, if the title only references the earthquake as it pertains to russia, does that qualify?

@No_uh ah looks like they’ve changed the description without noting it here. That’s a shame and pretty shady…

@PanhandleSubmersed i dont see any changes to description from earlier? what do you mean? is my market not loading properly?

@No_uh maybe something is wrong with mine, but no mention of NYT front page any longer. Try refreshing without cache

@PanhandleSubmersed That was never in the description I don't remember (unless the ai addition added it but then nikki deleted it, but i dont recall that happening)

the reference to being front page news was mentioned below in the comments!

@No_uh I must be imagining things. An audit log of description changes would be useful here, à la GitHub

@PanhandleSubmersed the nyt front page point was definitely there in the description but its not there anymore