Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state?

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resolved Nov 6

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Does not include split electoral votes by congressional districts, only the statewide vote

If either is not the nominee on election day, the replacement will be substituted.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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P(Trump wins AZ or GA or PA/WI/MI or NV) ~75%. P(Kamala wins NC or FL/TX) ~ 50%

so at least 25%

538 says at least 33%

bought Ṁ50 YES

@ChinmayTheMathGuy actually 89% + 53% - 99% on Manifold so 43%

I don't think those probabilities are fully independent.

@LucaMasters doesn't matter if independent

A and B = A + B - A OR B = A + B - 1 + exact repeat of 2020 (<2%) = A + B - 0.99

where A is Kamala flips a state (~50%)

and B is Trump flips a state (>80%)

so this market should be at least 30%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy It matters very much if they are independent which they are not, the probabilities you are calculating assume they are

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Cool question!

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