Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state? | Manifold

Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state?

Standard

61

Ṁ11k

Nov 11

26%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Does not include split electoral votes by congressional districts, only the statewide vote

If either is not the nominee on election day, the replacement will be substituted.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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P(Trump wins AZ or GA or PA/WI/MI or NV) ~75%. P(Kamala wins NC or FL/TX) ~ 50%

so at least 25%

538 says at least 33%

bought Ṁ50 YES

@ChinmayTheMathGuy actually 89% + 53% - 99% on Manifold so 43%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

I don't think those probabilities are fully independent.

reposted

Cool question!

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