Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state?

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resolved Nov 6

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Does not include split electoral votes by congressional districts, only the statewide vote

If either is not the nominee on election day, the replacement will be substituted.

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Made this eligible for sweepstakes!

P(Trump wins AZ or GA or PA/WI/MI or NV) ~75%. P(Kamala wins NC or FL/TX) ~ 50%

so at least 25%

538 says at least 33%

bought Ṁ50 YES

@ChinmayTheMathGuy actually 89% + 53% - 99% on Manifold so 43%

I don't think those probabilities are fully independent.

@LucaMasters doesn't matter if independent

A and B = A + B - A OR B = A + B - 1 + exact repeat of 2020 (<2%) = A + B - 0.99

where A is Kamala flips a state (~50%)

and B is Trump flips a state (>80%)

so this market should be at least 30%

@ChinmayTheMathGuy It matters very much if they are independent which they are not, the probabilities you are calculating assume they are

reposted

Cool question!