From the following tweet:
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1888314848477376744

In particular the statements that:
- "over $100B/year of entitlements payments to individuals with no SSN or even a temporary ID number" is credible
- "When I asked if anyone at Treasury had a rough guess for what percentage of that number is unequivocal and obvious fraud, the consensus in the room was about half, so $50B/year or $1B/week!!"

I probably have a mild anti-Elon Musk bias but am open to believe this, however I was unable to find any government report supporting these numbers.

Here is my twitter & bsky in case you want to see my biases:
https://x.com/nic_kup
https://bsky.app/profile/nickup.bsky.social

Please ask for clarification in the comments! In my current belief state I would resolve NO, but if you can convince me / do some calculation or whatever I am open to changing my mind!

• Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Default Resolution Criteria Update:

  • The creator will resolve NO unless alternative evidence is provided.

  • Evidence Requirement: Any new evidence should ideally be dated before the tweet was made.

  • The provided links and estimates form the basis for the current resolution.