Will Area C shrink by 2027?
9
230Ṁ157
2027
23%
chance

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-pm-rejected-us-proposal-for-saudi-normalization-in-exchange-for-path-to-palestinian-statehood/

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/effort-create-far-reaching-us-saudi-israeli-pact-end-war-rcna134396

Recently, there has been some discussion of opening a "path to Palestinian statehood" in the context of Israel-KSA normalization.

If Israel cedes any political control of any part of Area C - so if any of Area C gets transferred to Area B or Area A or other some kind of Palestinian or Arab political control - this resolves yes. Israeli annexation of parts of Area C would not be enough to resolve as yes. Israel giving up security control is not necessary for positive resolution. Renaming Area C but maintain full Israeli security and political control does not count.

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under no circumstances, while netanyahu is in power, will area c in any part be redisgnated as area b or area a. Israel's strategy to deny palestinian sovereignty is the biggest part of netanyahu's Security doctrine that he campaigns on.

@JamieCrom I wouldn't be so sure. Israel has full security control over Area B. In any case, Bibi is definitely out by 2027.

🤔 I think "a path to Palestinian statehood" means abolishing the Oslo framework of areas A, B and C, no? In my view those areas are predicated on the current weird situation where Judea and Samaria are occupied but not annexed by Israel.

@BrunoParga Well I don't know, that's part of the point of this market. But I would it guess it means some of C -> B.

Uhh I think if some of Area C becomes something that's not Israel and not Area C, I would also resolve this "yes". I should edit to clarify that.

Thanks for the suggestion, edited the question to capture what I want it to capture.

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