@traders free profit, my gift for you guys

I see that traders have a weird obsession with the New Horizons prize, but after tabulating the winners of 8 prizes we have
Jack Thorne - 4
Aleksandr Logunov - 3
Maksym Radziwill, Jacob Tsimerman, Aaron Naber, Karim Adiprasito, Song Sun, John Pardon - 2
42 other people - 1

100% (or 25% on this question) is a very aggressive bet. Are you on the committee?

@Pepe I know, I get lots of free mana from people filling my large 25% limit orders and then selling at lower percentage

https://ems.press/content/serial-article-files/10199
These guys picked 11 people and got 2 in 2018 and 2 in 2022.

@Pepe do they have a prediction for 2026?

@rogs No. Their methodology says to look at the winners of about 10 prizes and invitation to speak at ICM.

Prizes: EMS, Bocher, Coxeter-James, Fermat, SAS-TRA Ramanujan, Oswald Veblen, Clay, Wolf, Salem.

So Jacob Tsimerman seems like a shoo-in but the others are really inflated. Hong Wang has none of the listed prizes and only one prize overall.

Why are people filling my 25% limit orders???????

@121 free profit lets go!!!

Why are people sleeping on Will Sawin? Isn't he basically a shoe-in?

@fierydemon For 2030 he’s a shoe in I think

I feel that I should make another market on whether Wang, Pardon, Deng, and Tsimerman will be the 4 Fields Medalists.

Hong Wang would be the second Chinese Fields Medalist after ST Yau, the first Chinese passport holder, the third ethnic Chinese after ST Yau and Terry Tao, the third woman Fields Medalist, and the first Chinese woman.

John Pardon would be the first US-born and US-raised Fields Medalist since Curtis McMullen in 1998.

Jacob Tsimerman would be the second Israeli Fields Medalist after Lindenstrauss and the second Canadian after Bhargava.

Yu Deng would also be the second Chinese Fields Medalist, the first Chinese passport holder, and the third ethnic Chinese.

Seems like a giant loss for Europe and perhaps the first time in a while that no Europeans will win the Fields Medal. Tsimerman was born in Russia but raised in Canada and Israel. I don't know if he has a Russian passport but I doubt it.

These 4 people also got their PhDs from MIT, Stanford, Princeton, and Princeton respectively. Big win for the US I guess.

@nathanwei John Pardon undergrad at Princeton too btw

Jocob Tsimerman

Also I noticed that the chance of Jacob Tsimerman got lowered a lot, is it because mathematicians found flaws in his proof of André–Oort conjecture?

Other than Wang and Jacob Tsimerman, who are the main contenders?

@AUTOMATA Yu Deng for his contributions to Hilbert's Sixth Problem

@AUTOMATA also just noticed a recent rise of John Pardon, but I can't find his breakthrough work yet.