Every person who wins resolves to 25% (assuming it's 4 people who split it equally, in general we split it).
It's very silly to bet people over 25%. In principle the Fields Medal could be awarded to fewer than four people but that's unlikely.
1,000I feel that I should make another market on whether Wang, Pardon, Deng, and Tsimerman will be the 4 Fields Medalists.
Hong Wang would be the second Chinese Fields Medalist after ST Yau, the first Chinese passport holder, the third ethnic Chinese after ST Yau and Terry Tao, the third woman Fields Medalist, and the first Chinese woman.
John Pardon would be the first US-born and US-raised Fields Medalist since Curtis McMullen in 1998.
Jacob Tsimerman would be the second Israeli Fields Medalist after Lindenstrauss and the second Canadian after Bhargava.
Yu Deng would also be the second Chinese Fields Medalist, the first Chinese passport holder, and the third ethnic Chinese.
Seems like a giant loss for Europe and perhaps the first time in a while that no Europeans will win the Fields Medal. Tsimerman was born in Russia but raised in Canada and Israel. I don't know if he has a Russian passport but I doubt it.
These 4 people also got their PhDs from MIT, Stanford, Princeton, and Princeton respectively. Big win for the US I guess.
@AUTOMATA also just noticed a recent rise of John Pardon, but I can't find his breakthrough work yet.
@k1234567890y It’s well known that Hong Wang was the driving force behind Kakeya. Zahl is good too but Wang is better.
@nathanwei thanks for telling
I decided to show at least what Hong Wang and Jacob Tsimerman had done so that people would have some concepts about them before making predictions.
@nathanwei They don't have to give out 4, although they have for the last 5 times.
Then again, it's not guaranteed that Wang and Tsimerman will get it, even if it does seem pretty likely.
@DanielTilkin I think it’s practically guaranteed (95%) that Wang will get it in either 2026 or 2030, but I think about 65% for 2026 and 30% for 2030. Viazovska didn’t get it until the last time she was eligible either.