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MANIFOLD
Which country will win IMO 2026?
108
Ṁ1kṀ30k
resolved Jul 19
100%99.3%
People's Republic of China
0.1%
Republic of Korea
0.1%
Russian Federation
0.4%
United States of America
0.1%Other

67th International Mathematical Olympiad - Shanghai, China (July 10-21, 2026)

Resolves proportionally between tied teams if there is a tie for first

This market will be resolved once official results are posted on the IMO website:

https://www.imo-official.org/results/team/year/2026/

https://www.imo2026.com/Results/Team_Results.htm

  • Update 2026-06-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Russia participates only as individual contestants (not as an official team), they would not resolve as winners, since they would not appear in the official team rankings on the IMO website.

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please define "russian federation wins imo".

@Tetrahydrofuran They win IMO if they are officially ranked first on the team results posted on the IMO website

@jonathan so if they are still registered as individual contestants and they will win first place if they participated as a team, what does this resolve to?

@Tetrahydrofuran Then it wouldn't resolve to them because they wouldn't be listed in the official team rankings

But reportedly Russia is no longer banned this year, so I don't think that would be the case

bought Ṁ200 YES

dawg why do we have USA IMO team members betting that China will win

@Incompleteusern is this self referential?

@Incompleteusern sooooooooo

opened a Ṁ50 NO at 83% order

This counts the total number of points obtained, right?

sold Ṁ50 YES

@FlorisvanDoorn Yes, that is correct.