Conditional on the Atlas Fellowship running in 2024, will Klein be a 2024 Atlas Fellow
Basic
7
Ṁ674
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if Klein, poster of https://manifold.markets/klein199/will-i-become-an-atlas-fellow-in-20, is selected as a 2024 Atlas Fellow. Resolves NO if there are 2024 Atlas Fellows, but Klein is not one of them*. Resolves N/A otherwise. Closes when Klein's market resolves, or when Atlas announces that they will not be continuing in 2024.

Related market**:

https://manifold.markets/Logaems/will-the-atlas-fellowship-disband-a?r=bXVkUGkzMTQ

* If the Atlas Fellowship runs next year but changes its eligibility requirements, or if Klein is unable to reapply for any other reason, this market will still resolve NO

** Note that it is possible for that market to resolve NO and this one to resolve N/A. This will happen if the Atlas Fellowship does not run next year, but also does not disband.

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The three markets fit surprisingly well into Bayes' theorem

predictedNO

@Logaems It's probably not being illustrated right now

priors

Well, internet strangers are starting to notice me, yay I've made it?

predictedYES

@klein199 bro bet against himself💀

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