Yes if "chance" is between 1% and 48% OR 95% and 99% including endpoints.
No if the chance is less than 1%, between 49% and 94%, or more than 99%.
Inspired by https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-this-market-be-in-the-interval and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4808/will-the-median-prediction-on-this-question-fall-in-range-1-48-or-95-99/.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ9,159 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4,875 | |
| 3 | Ṁ3,692 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,846 | |
| 5 | Ṁ1,213 |
@ms_test I was on the winning side, but curious for an explaination here? Seemed like it was gearing for a liquidation standoff at the end, where any side could have won. The NO’s just didn’t push, I suppose because they forgot. (I pushed it to the YES side last night when I decided I didn’t want to get up early, protected with a limit with all the YES I had left, and that was enough).
@andrew Yeah, I could've won from selling ~1k shares at the end, but in addition to misreading the resolve time, I fell asleep and forgot about it lol. I think I had too much trust in NO whales who I thought would bring the market back up to 49%
@audrey it’s not a market where you have a chance of winning by trusting the whales on your side if the whales actually know what they’re doing
@ms_test For M$999, I’ll explain to anyone how this market works and how it’s possible not to loose all of your money and to sometimes profit from it (You included)
@NikitaSkovoroda Wow, people still don't understand how this specific market works! Even though I though I explained it to @Catnee on a call! I’m wondering now whether I should participate myself
@Simon1551 I didn't do any automated trading on this platform, no.
Are you asking if I have another account?