Yes if "chance" is between 21% and 70% including endpoints.
No otherwise.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ22,131 | |
| 2 | Ṁ8,627 | |
| 3 | Ṁ2,627 | |
| 4 | Ṁ1,277 | |
| 5 | Ṁ998 |
I created https://manifold.markets/ms_test/will-this-market-be-in-the-interval-7ff144f5b1e6
It should be more fun
Mikhail has the biggest number, but I think the real champion is @Homer winning his 3rd gamble market in a row from humble beginnings without ever buying any more.
Does not micromanage his position or even worry, just slams all his mana onto a team and whales spontaneously form around him every time when he's not even paying attention to make him win.
@Mira I think the two of you moved the market much closer to what it would've looked like with real money; I was lucky it wasn't close enough (I would've made much less then).
I'm still pretty happy about the number, though!
@Simon1551 I was actually counting on @Zorn and @JonathanRay to sell some shares but looks like they went +10k just for the lols
@Simon1551 that wouldn't work. I'd sell Yes at 71+% until a few API ticks before close and at 70% near the close; either I'd had no more Yes to sell (and then I'd buy No until it's at 71% and support the 71% point) or they had no more No shares, and I'd still win unless you sold as well. This is a zero-sum market with equilibria around 70-71%
@ms_test I don't know as soon as I saw that no one else was sell I tried to sell but I guess there was really a response time until it counted because nothing happened
@ForrestTaylor it's the same as with clicks. I just measure the API response time and the code makes some decisions based on it
@ms_test That's what I was expecting too. I started selling mine, but then I started to doubt myself and thought "what if somebody buys it down to 19%?" And then I lost track of the seconds.
At least I was only in it for small amounts in the end.