You know how some tribes have a strong sense of orientation and navigate using cardinal directions?
I want to try to obtain this sense.
I made a page that makes a sound every time I face North; and, in intervals, directional sounds coming from where North is.
Will that work?
Note: I’ll resolve this very subjectively, something like whether I’m aware of the cardinal directions and can navigate using them/track them after looking at a compass once.
Update 2025-05-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the resolution will consider:
Whether they learn the skill by using an amount of effort they find reasonable to put into it.
This will factor into their subjective assessment of whether the proposed learning method works for them.
Update 2025-05-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The market is not a prediction of the creator's time commitment or dedication, but rather whether the learning method itself will work for them. This determination is subject to the creator applying what they consider a reasonable amount of effort, as previously clarified.
The creator may resolve to N/A if personal acquaintances convince them their overall handling or interpretation of this market is incorrect.
1,000Found https://apps.apple.com/gb/app/talk-compass/id1540530352, it seems to work on the background! Though can’t be set to only play a sound on North
To clarify: I intended to spend some limited amount of time trying to learn it, and then resolve depending on the results. I have not spent almost any time on it over the past month, hence the extension. Nowhere in the description I said anything like “by the original close time”. I don’t think extending the close time misleads anyone in terms of the bets they’ve placed, unless anyone was betting specifically on “Mikhail doesn’t find time to practice this before the close time”, which is very remote from what the question is about.
This market is going to be managed and resolved subjectively: it is about a personal thing.
@ms thanks for the clarification. I think it's pretty reasonable for folks to assume you're going to attempt [thing] by [close date] - if I set up a market right now for whether I'd be able to juggle 10 objects and the close date was Friday, naturally people take that to be my goal to successfully juggle. there isn't anything to predict if I'm going to keep pushing out the date until I can either do it or I give up on being able to because it's too hard/I changed my mind/I lost an arm/whatever. if a market asks whether I'll be able to juggle 10 objects with 100 hours of practice, it's equally reasonable for people to assume I'll keep track of how many hours I'm practicing and adjust the close date accordingly.
@shankypanky yeah, that seems reasonable, but also I don't think there would've been many bets made differently.
More importantly, the spirit of the market is whether I'll learn a thing by using the amount of effort I'll find reasonable to put into it; and the market actually asks whether a way to learn that thing will work. I can't resolve the market until I know whether or not it works.
There is also a note in the market description saying I’ll resolve this very subjectively; I don't think this should be intervened on by the mods. I have no idea why so many people who I don't know me are betting on my personal market, and I guess will need to put even more explicit disclaimers in the future markets, but it's in general somewhat annoying to have to think about the details which are not relevant to the question that is interesting to me here.
@ms I don't care that much, and i've sold out my position because I don't want to be in this market anymore as a bettor, but I think it's diningenous to act surprised when people say they made bets based on whether you could accomplish the thing by the close date, and then you go radio silent about it and extend the date by double in the last hours.
The problem with your last reply to mine is you have assumed that my estimations were based solely on the difficulty of the task, but that's not accurate. when I see a market (especially a personal goal one), besides the simple question of whether the task is even doable in any capacity, people consider how much dedication it might take, or how consistent someone would need to be to accomplish it.
I will concede to you that it's not 100% NECESSARY to say in your market title or description "by the close date". But unless you say any other date or time, this is the deadline people assume! and you have been on this website long enough to know that I think based on your net worth and trading history lol.
You can run your market however you please, and good luck on your goal. I wish you the best, but I don't think you should act surprised or confused about how extending the market run time by double would upset or confuse traders (or update their estimations greatly!).
I agree completely with what I feel @No_uh and @shankypanky are patiently and carefully explaining. I'm glad to have been able to sell my stake at a minimal loss.
@ms I sold my (small) stakes long ago, but as another data point: I too understood the close date to be the implicit deadline when the result would be evaluated.
In general I think it's more appropriate to create a new market when you want to keep trying the thing and it wasn't very clear from the start that the market might extend. (A little late now for this market, though, since now people have probably traded on the extension.)
@No_uh if you look at my other recent markets, when the question is about whether something will happen by some date,I always specify it even when I set the closing date to be the same as the date in question.
This market explicitly asks whether a method will work, not whether I’ll put in time/dedication.
Please don’t trade on my personal markets if you don’t know me and are going to be lawyering about something that says it will resolve subjectively.
If anyone who knows me personally thinks I’m wrong, please tell me, I’ll resolve this to N/A.
@ms don’t resolve NA. The debate on whether sense of direction is innate or learned is so much more interesting than the debates about close date etiquette. I think you can train a sense of direction, no question. Thanks for creating this market. Please do your experiment and let us know what you learn!
@makeworld http://contact.ms/compass. This is not a real app. If anyone can make a real iOS app that works on the background, that would be greatly appreciated! And I have an apple developer thing that can be used to sign it.
hmm.
@ms it's a bit misleading to traders when you have a personal goal resolving on a specific date and you extend it - especially extending it for an entire month. traders joined this market based on your ability to orient to cardinal directions by May 12th... some personal goals markets set the expectation of a time extension (like in the cases of a person needing to receive an item/attend an event that gets delayed) but that's typically written into the description and communicated along the way.
I see you said below that you're extending but I'm not clear why. do you plan to extend the market until it can resolve yes? (that kind of defeats the purpose)
@shankypanky @ms_daydream @mods I feel like this should probably resolve as No, based on the creator's comment below, stating that it still took conscious effort and all?
@No_uh i've used the thing approximately three times over the past 27 days, because it can't run on the background and I generally want to use my phone. If you traded based on how difficult you expected it to be given the time period, and thought that the difficulty stems from the skill being hard to learn and not from the specific webapp that Claude made not running in the background and so preventing me from using my phone, I don't think this is in any way misleading.
"There is not yet a consensus on whether humans can sense magnetic fields or not, but it is being studied and some researchers have found evidence suggesting it"
@bessarabov you don't need magnetic fields to reliably know the rough direction of north. There's plenty of signs you can use, the position of the sun and the hour of the day, the stars at night, even the moss on trees and buildings trick is somewhat reliable in a pinch
@Odoacre in a Tip-to-tip show (crossing Japan without map, first or second episode) Michael successfully recognised in advance they were making a circle even without any external cues. He was just subconciously understanding that their turns summed up to 180 degrees. And he trained that feeling of direction by playing minecraft caves.
If you know, where the north at the entrance to an enclosed labyrinth, you can say where the north is for every point in the Labyrinth.
@JoshuaPhillipsLivingReaso your suggestion has a good chance of working, but the market described another method which is almost destined to fail.