What alignment proposals and research directions will I be excited about by the end of 2023?
What alignment proposals and research directions will I be excited about by the end of 2023?
7
680Ṁ353resolved Jan 1
100%72%
Infra-bayesianism
13%Other
0.7%
Outsourcing alignment of AI to other AI
0.3%
Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF)
0.3%
Transparency tools
0.3%
Imitative amplification
0.3%
Intermittent oversight
0.3%
Relaxed adversarial training
0.3%
Approval-based amplification
0.3%
Microscope AI
1.1%
STEM AI
0.3%
Narrow reward modeling
0.4%
Recursive reward modeling
0.4%
AI safety via debate with transparency tools
0.4%
Amplification with auxiliary RL objective
0.4%
Shard theory mechanistic interpretability
1.8%
6%
Hodgepodge alignment
0.4%
Cyborgism
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What is Manifold?
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Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
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In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
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