
Will there be more alignmentforum posts from 2025 than 2024?
Basic
1
Ṁ202026
59%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
I will count posts on the website at the start of 2026. If posts have disappeared in the meantime or are made unaccessible, I won't count them.
I'll resolve to the percentage of:
posts_from_2025 / (posts_from_2024 + posts_from_2025)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will there exist a compelling demonstration of deceptive alignment by 2026?
70% chance
Will I think that alignment is no longer "preparadigmatic" by the start of 2026?
20% chance
Will "Without fundamental advances, misalignment an..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
50% chance
Will "The Field of AI Alignment: A Postmortem, and ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
28% chance
Will "Tips for Empirical Alignment Research" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
24% chance
Will "What Is The Alignment Problem?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
15% chance
Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will "Takes on "Alignment Faking in Large Language ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
19% chance
Will "Alignment Implications of LLM Successes: a De..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
57% chance
Will "“Alignment Faking” frame is somewhat fake" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
19% chance