Will Llama 4 be the best LLM in the chatbot arena?
16
100Ṁ11002026
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if it’s #1 on https://chat.lmsys.org .
Ties for first place will resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Meta to release world's most advanced AI?
19% chance
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Is Rhea in the Chatbot Arena Llama 4? (lmarena.ai)
95% chance
Will ChatGPT or Bing be the most popular LLM chatbot at the end of 2024?
82% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
84% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
67% chance
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
69% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
Which LLM will have the highest ELO at the end of 2025 on ChatBot Arena?
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Meta to release world's most advanced AI?
19% chance
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Is Rhea in the Chatbot Arena Llama 4? (lmarena.ai)
95% chance
Will ChatGPT or Bing be the most popular LLM chatbot at the end of 2024?
82% chance
Will OpenAI have the best LLM in 2024?
84% chance
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
67% chance
Will a chatbot from a Chinese company top the LMSYS leaderboard in 2026?
69% chance