Will Llama 4 be the best LLM in the chatbot arena?
18
Ṁ100Ṁ1.8kresolved Sep 28
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if it’s #1 on https://chat.lmsys.org .
Ties for first place will resolve YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ76 | |
| 2 | Ṁ31 | |
| 3 | Ṁ17 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
People are also trading
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
71% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
49% chance
Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?
43% chance
Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?
85% chance
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?
71% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
49% chance
Will the LMSYS Chatbot Arena still be 'a thing' in 2027, under the same evaluation method?
43% chance
Llama 5 outperforms GPT 4o on LM Arena?
85% chance