So I'm the scumbag who created the funniest market on Manifold:

https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/president-of-usa-has-orgasm-on-live

President of USA has orgasm on live TV before 2035

4% chance. Any live video medium will be sufficient, it does not need to be TV. If deepfakes become common, then the video feed has to come from a reputable source.

Admit it, you can't stop laughing either.

If this market stays above 7% for 72 hours any time before 2030, this claim resolves as YES.

Derivatives: why not? Think of it as a credit default swap on your bet that US presidents will continue their 250+ year tradition of not having sex in public.