This market aims to predict when Google will add ads to its primary user-facing (i.e. not dev-only or api-based) AI offering (currently being Gemini). These ads may take many forms, such as regular AdWords/AdSense ads that correlate to the topic(s) discussed, “sponsored responses” (á la Rufus on Amazon), etc.

This market will not resolve to yes if ads are only seen by a handful of users (e.g. a/b testing), but will resolve to yes even if ads are only seen by a particular segment (of non-negligible size), such as non-paying users, users from certain countries, etc.

Note: If Google introduces a separate standalone AI offering (i.e. not just in-search AI snippets) that significantly supersedes Gemini (e.g. how Gemini replaced Bard) before this market is resolved, this market may be updated to track that offering instead.