Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.

The state of blocking will be checked by entering the query youtube.com in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official blocklist site and submitting the form.

If the message returned is: "доступ ограничивается к странице" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as Yes.

If the message returned is: "По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is not included in the blocklist and this question resolves as No.

This question also resolves as Yes if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to credible sources.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.