Will Soft White Underbelly be banned from YouTube by 2027?
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2027
40%
chance

The channel Soft White Underbelly consists of uncensored interviews with people on the fringes of society, many of them drug addicts, prostitutes, or severely mentally ill. Despite being IMHO an incredible service to help the wider public understand what goes on in the minds and lives of these people, YouTube is largely hostile to these sorts of raw and disturbing depictions of society.

This market resolves YES if the Soft White Underbelly channel is banned from YouTube for at least 3 consecutive months by 2027.

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After a cursory glance, the production values and framing seem unlikely to prompt that sort of ban. Filming someone having a breakdown in public, raving on a street corner, is distinctly different from filming an interview with them, even if they're clearly out of their mind.

Honestly, this market seems more like an attempt to acquire viewers than a serious question.

predicts YES

@AndrewHartman A lot of the interviews go into gory detail on topics like drug and sexual abuse, including that of minors. And given that he's paying people for these interviews, I would not at all be surprised if some group decided to paint him as coercing poor mentally-ill people. I've never seen such brutally candid first-hand accounts of many of these topics on youtube, and I assume there's a reason for that.

The creator of the channel, Mark Laita, has said himself in interviews that a majority of his videos on the platform are demonetized, and he thinks it's only a matter of time until he's banned altogether.

So no, this very much is an honest question.

bought Ṁ25 of NO

@jonsimon Demonetization can happen for a lot of reasons, most prominently that no advertisers want their product associated with a specific topic. I think the gulf between that and a ban is larger than you might think - particularly for anything that can be plausibly considered journalism.

predicts YES

@AndrewHartman Could be, but of the 100+ youtube channels I'm subscribed to, his content is far-and-away the most ban-worthy given the sensitively of the topics being discussed, hence the market. If you're very confident that there's no risk, you're welcome to aggressively bet the market down.