Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, on January 1, 2026, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.

Russia must have control of at least two of the following locations:

• Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000

• Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast

• Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000

• Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000

• Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600

• Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000

• Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000

Russia must also have control of all of the following locations:

• Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol

• Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900

• Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600

• Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000

• Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.