Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question resolves as Yes if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or credible reports:

• The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).

• The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.

• The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.

• The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.

If there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as No.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

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