[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Manifold

[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?

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Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

The question resolves Yes if the most recent effective federal funds rate on December 31, 2024 is less than 4%.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Monetary Policy

#ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

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The Fed has signaled that they will likely do around 3 rate cuts in. All three of these would need to be 0.5% cuts or larger to get below 4% by EOY. They frequently operate in 0.25% increments when trying to be gradual.

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By how much will the Fed cut interest rates in 2024?

Will the FED cut rates more than once before the end of 2024?

[ACX 2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?

Will FED cut rates at their November 2024 meeting?

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What will the lower-end of the Fed funds rate be after the FOMC meeting in [month] in 2024? Resolves to 32×(r - 2.5%).

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