[ACX 2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
[ACX 2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
resolved by
92
1kṀ24k
resolved Jan 16
Resolved
YES

Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ881
2Ṁ806
3Ṁ321
4Ṁ306
5Ṁ292


Sort by:
2mo

resolves yes cc @jskf

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 30% order

Current update, that I also posted on Metaculus:

For September 2024 this was 320.767, this is after 9 months.
(320.767/313.209)^(1/9) = 1.00265, so .265% so far.
(322.762/320.767)^(1/3) = 1.00207, so would need to increase by an average of at least 0.207% for the next 3 months for this to resolve yes.

(Edited to remove the "last 4 months", which I accidentally took from headline inflation rather than core)

3mo

@DanielTilkin unless I’m misunderstanding something it seems like you’re looking at the numbers for headline inflation (blue circle). This market is about core inflation, ie inflation less food and energy (red circle).

3mo

@CKLorentzen Looks like you're right, I was reading the "last 4 months" from the headline CPI, rather than core, sorry about that. The rest of the calcs are from the FRED link, which is actually core, so they should be correct.

9mo

Current update, that I also posted on Metaculus:

Looking at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, the actual Core CPI Number:


In December 2023 this was 313.209. If this increases by 3.05% or more, this will resolve to yes, since this would cause it to resolve to 3.1% or more. 313.209*1.0305 = 322.762

For May 2024 this was 318.140, this is after 5 months. (318.140/313.209)^(1/5) = 1.00313, so 0.313% per month so far. (322.762/318.140)^(1/7) = 1.00206, so would need to increase by an average of at least 0.206% for the next seven months for this to resolve yes.

May was actually 0.163% (rounded to 0.2%), but the six months prior all rounded to 0.3% or 0.4% 1.00206^12 = 1.02500, so the needed rate for the rest of the year would be a 2.5% annualized rate. It's possible that May represented a phase shift, and monthly numbers will stick there, but I'm doubtful.

11mo

We just need to average 0.2% for the rest of the year, after 0.4% for the first 3 months.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules