Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
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Current update, that I also posted on Metaculus:
Looking at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, the actual Core CPI Number:
In December 2023 this was 313.209. If this increases by 3.05% or more, this will resolve to yes, since this would cause it to resolve to 3.1% or more. 313.209*1.0305 = 322.762
For May 2024 this was 318.140, this is after 5 months. (318.140/313.209)^(1/5) = 1.00313, so 0.313% per month so far. (322.762/318.140)^(1/7) = 1.00206, so would need to increase by an average of at least 0.206% for the next seven months for this to resolve yes.
May was actually 0.163% (rounded to 0.2%), but the six months prior all rounded to 0.3% or 0.4% 1.00206^12 = 1.02500, so the needed rate for the rest of the year would be a 2.5% annualized rate. It's possible that May represented a phase shift, and monthly numbers will stick there, but I'm doubtful.