Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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Current update, that I also posted on Metaculus:
For September 2024 this was 320.767, this is after 9 months.
(320.767/313.209)^(1/9) = 1.00265, so .265% so far.
(322.762/320.767)^(1/3) = 1.00207, so would need to increase by an average of at least 0.207% for the next 3 months for this to resolve yes.
(Edited to remove the "last 4 months", which I accidentally took from headline inflation rather than core)
@DanielTilkin unless I’m misunderstanding something it seems like you’re looking at the numbers for headline inflation (blue circle). This market is about core inflation, ie inflation less food and energy (red circle).
@CKLorentzen Looks like you're right, I was reading the "last 4 months" from the headline CPI, rather than core, sorry about that. The rest of the calcs are from the FRED link, which is actually core, so they should be correct.
Current update, that I also posted on Metaculus:
Looking at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL, the actual Core CPI Number:
In December 2023 this was 313.209. If this increases by 3.05% or more, this will resolve to yes, since this would cause it to resolve to 3.1% or more. 313.209*1.0305 = 322.762
For May 2024 this was 318.140, this is after 5 months. (318.140/313.209)^(1/5) = 1.00313, so 0.313% per month so far. (322.762/318.140)^(1/7) = 1.00206, so would need to increase by an average of at least 0.206% for the next seven months for this to resolve yes.
May was actually 0.163% (rounded to 0.2%), but the six months prior all rounded to 0.3% or 0.4% 1.00206^12 = 1.02500, so the needed rate for the rest of the year would be a 2.5% annualized rate. It's possible that May represented a phase shift, and monthly numbers will stick there, but I'm doubtful.