Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, a bill is introduced in either the US House or US Senate which would impose one of the following restrictions on large language models or products using large language models.
Forbids their creation
Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with.
Prevents their use for certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Resolution will be determined according to reporting from credible sources and keyword searches of GovTrack.us.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
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Introducing a bill is a very low bar; any of the 535 members of Congress can do it without approval from anyone. Lots of bills are introduced and then never discussed again. I think the most likely way for this event to resolve YES is something about copyright (the "limiting access to previously usable training data" clause).
@Odoacre Good question, I've asked for clarification on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20780/legislation-limiting-llms-introduced-in-2024/#comment-142419
Reply there (not from an admin afaik):
In the House, a bill is introduced when it is dropped in the hopper (a wooden box on the House floor). In the Senate, the bill is submitted to clerks on the Senate floor. Upon introduction, the bill will receive a designation based on the chamber of introduction, for example, H.R. or H.J.Res. for House-originated bills or joint resolutions and S. or S.J.Res. for Senate-originated measures. It will also receive a number, which typically is the next number available in sequence during that two-year Congress.
https://www.congress.gov/legislative-process/introduction-and-referral-of-bills