Conditional on a vacancy in the Supreme Court, will a nominee be confirmed before the end of the 118th Congress?
12
54
1k
2025
68%
chance

This market will resolve YES if there becomes a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court, and a replacement for that vacancy is nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate before the end of the 118th Congress on January 3, 2025.

This market will resolve NO if there becomes a vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court, and a replacement for that vacancy is not nominated by the President or not confirmed by the Senate before the end of the 118th Congress.

This market will resolve N/A if there is no vacancy in the U.S. Supreme Court before the end of the 118th Congress.

More Details:

A vacancy can be caused by impeachment and removal, death, retirement, or anything that would normally cause the President to nominate a new member. If more members beyond 9 are added to the Supreme Court (i.e. "court packing"), that counts as a vacancy. If there are multiple vacancies, only one member has to be replaced for this market to resolve as YES. If the end date of Congress changes, the market end date will be modified. Please ask any clarifying questions.

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