Will the Collatz Conjecture be proved true by December 2024?

270Ṁ988

resolved Oct 13

ResolvedN/A

0.2%

Yes, and the Japanese $1M prize will be won.

0.2%

Yes, and the Japanese $1M prize will not be won.

92%

Yes

1.4%

Yes, but there will be a disagreement among mathematicians as to whether the proof is correct or not.

0.2%Other

A proof has been suggested on Quora for "the nth terms of convergence of the Collatz map".

There are two parts to the proof:

A general statement of the theorem, https://qr.ae/pyD8Nk, and an inductive proof of that theorem, https://qr.ae/pKRv1A.

The ambiguity is whether or not proving convergence of the nth terms is the same as proving all sequence Ns converge on 1.

A third, generalized, proof may be published on Quora.

If you want to learn about the conjecture and its place in contemporary mathematics, watch the Veritasium video on YouTube: https://youtu.be/094y1Z2wpJg

About the prize: https://mathprize.net/posts/collatz-conjecture/

Collatz conjecture Prize 120 million JPY

A prize of 120 million JPY will be paid to those who have revealed the truth of the Collatz conjecture. The conjecture is also known as the $3x + 1$ problem or the $3n + 1$ problem. 120 million JPY in USD Collatz conjecture Repeatedly applying the function $f(x)$ defined below to any positive integers will eventually result in $1$. \[ f(x) = \left \{ \begin{array} \\ x \mathbin{/} 2 & (x \equiv 0 \pmod 2) \\ 3 x + 1 & (x \equiv 1 \pmod 2) \end{array} \right. \]

Science

Math

Conjecture

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?

3% chance

Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?

16% chance

Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?

14% chance

Is the Collatz conjecture true?

87% chance

By the end of year 2025, will a counter-example to the Collatz Conjecture be provided that is less than a googolplex?

2% chance

OpenAI discovers the first proof of the collatz conjecture before 2026

2% chance

Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?

31% chance

Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040?

44% chance

Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2030?

23% chance

Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2050?

Sort by:

I was advised by Manifold that, now there is a multiple-choice option, I should close this market. I have created a new market with the same question and details for multiple-choice answers. Therefore, I am resolving this market as N/A.

I'm a bit confused. You have 4 YES options. Two of them, those about the prize, are mutually exclusive with each other but not with the other YES options. One is a normal Yes option. One is not mutually exclusive with the others.

The market doesn't seem to be right.

@bohaska And it's very unclear what "other" means here.

@EvanDaniel "Other" seems to be a default imposed by the website. You can choose a simple yes or no - or one of the three elaborated yesses. And there may be other scenarios I haven't thought about.

@MichaelMRoss
It's probably best to cancel this market and remake it as a multiple-choice independent market, where there can be more than one correct option:

That feature was only added 3 days ago, so you didn't get to select it when you made your market, but now we have it.

@bohaska So that change cannot be made to the existing question? If not, would I be able to make the switch to multiple choice by using the Duplicate command?

@MichaelMRoss Yes, you can duplicate the question, then it'll open a question creation pane. Then, change the number of answers to be chosen to "Any number".

Manifold doesn't support changing types of questions after they're made.