Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027? | Manifold

Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?

46

1kṀ4346

2027

3%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves NO on January 1, 2027 if no such proof has yet been found. Resolves YES if such a proof is found before then.

This would obviously likely be by an AI, but proofs from human mathematicians also count.

I wanted a version of this question that resolves closer to within my apocalypse timeline, so I'll actually be forced to pay up [by my reckoning] if I'm wrong and Fermat goofed or was messing with us. I'll also be forced to pay up if people just don't turn a lot of compute toward answering this question, but I think this setup gives overall better incentives to short-timeline people.

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