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Is it a ponzi? I started an anti-ponzi thread many many years ago on bitcointalk.org I love fighting ponzis and have dreamt of betting against them.

One of the greatest anti-ponzi bets was when Micon bet that Bitcoin Savings and Trust would collapse and, if I recall correctly, the ponzi operator bet against him - as they were trying to make it look like it wasn't about to collapse. He timed it well, escrowed the bet and made a killing (especially if he kept even just 1% of the bitcoins).

Didn't realize this would happen so soon when I made this one.

https://manifold.markets/GordonFierce/will-haruinvest-default-before-the?r=R29yZG9uRmllcmNl

So this is now a "do they unfreeze in the next 6 days" market.

This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.

• A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.

• A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.

• A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.

• If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c.

• A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.

  • If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.

• In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/06/13/south-korean-crypto-yield-platform-haru-invest-pauses-withdrawals-and-deposits/

South Korean Crypto Yield Platform Haru Invest Pauses Withdrawals and Deposits

The firm blamed the pause on a “certain issue” with one of its service partners, and said it is working on a contingency plan, according to a blog update.

We're going on halfway through the year, either the chance of default per month is going up or I way oversubsidized this market.

Clarifying that this will be interpreted as whether they default by the end of 2023, which is inclusive of the remainder of 2022, in keeping with the wording of the original cryptocurrency counterparty risk series on Metaculus.