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MANIFOLD
Will HaruInvest default before the end of 2024?
1
Ṁ50Ṁ81
resolved Jun 21
Resolved
YES

Same resolution criteria as used by the crypto counterparty risk series on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:finance--cryptocurrencies--counterparty-risk

  • This question will resolve positively upon a report of a default by a company, or by reliable news media.

    • A temporal trading & withdrawal halt would not count if it lasts less than a week.

    • A halt in a specific region due to regulation would not count.

    • A halt due to network-wide attack (s.a. 51% attack or DDoS) would not count.

  • If the exchange ceases to exist (but doesn't default), or is acquired, the question resolves negatively if their customers can assess their assets &c.

  • A hack resulting in loss of client's assets would not suffice by itself e.g. if the company offsets all the losses.

    • If, as Bitfinex in 2016, the affected company only partly offsets the loss and e.g. provides clients with compensation in the form of a new token the question will resolve positively.

  • In cases like a vulnerability in a smart contract or in case an oracle is hacked, resulting in a loss of clients’ money/cryptocurrency, the question assumes that the company is responsible for clients losses, even if formally clients agreed to use a smart contract/oracle as it is

HaruInvest https://haruinvest.com/ pays interest on deposits of cryptocurrency.

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