Will Scott Alexander mention my use of prediction markets to promote my free substack, Mzungu, in his blog, Slate Star Codex, by 31st March 2023?
19
resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO

I write a free substack called Mzungu (it's good, you should read it). I wondered if creating a few prediction markets might help me find new subscribers - this is one of them.

If Scott mentions this market or any of my other markets about Mzungu, or mentions my substack, Mzungu, in any of his blog posts on Slate Star Codex before 31st March, then this will resolves yes. A mention in the comments doesn't count.

Link: https://mzungu.substack.com

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

41. Will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction, in 2023?
ACXBot avatarACX BotBot
74% chance
Will Scott Alexander blog about UFOs this year?
ScottLawrence avatarScott Lawrence
49% chance
Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing before 2026?
MatthewBarnett avatarMatthew Barnett
70% chance
Will Scott Alexander write an ACX blog post containing the word "rationalussy" by the end of 2023?
Yev avatarYev
23% chance
Will Scott Alexander be the LWCW23 keynote speaker?
📖Will @ScottAlexander write a classic (over 1000 likes) before 2025?
Tossup avatarTossup
59% chance
📖Will @ScottAlexander write _another_ banger (over 500 likes) in 2023?
Tossup avatarTossup
77% chance
Will Scott Alexander endorse a presidential candidate in 2024?
ScottLawrence avatarScott Lawrence
44% chance
Will Scott Alexander be a guest on any podcast whatsoever before 2028?
Tripping avatarTripping
27% chance
Will Scott Alexander review The Network State by Balaji Srinivasan?
egroj avatarJAAM
28% chance
When will Scott Alexander publish Unsong?
Will Scott Alexander blog about Silicon Valley Bank this year?
xyz avatarYoav
6% chance
Will Scott Alexander endorse Joe Biden in 2024?
ScottLawrence avatarScott Lawrence
32% chance
Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030
GG avatarGG
15% chance
Will Scott Alexander have a baby before 2025?
JonathanRay avatarJonathan Ray
65% chance
📖Will @ScottAlexander write an all-time post (see description) by 2035?
Tossup avatarTossup
73% chance
Will Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Dfe2f avatarD
3% chance
Will Scott Alexander get divorced?
BenjaminIkuta avatarBenjamin Ikuta
23% chance
Will I vote for Scott Alexander in the 2024 general presidential election?
ScottLawrence avatarScott Lawrence
19% chance
Will Scott Alexander be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
3% chance

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ49
2Ṁ17
3Ṁ16
4Ṁ10
5Ṁ3
Sort by:
Odoacre avatar
Odoacrebought Ṁ1 of YES

I liked your article about Rome, I hope you're enjoying your time there.

1 reply
TheWiggleManRetired avatar
TheWiggleManRetiredbought Ṁ10 of YES

@Odoacre "I wondered if creating a few prediction markets might help me find new subscribers - this is one of them." - perhaps the market maker would resolve this YES if that's accomplished

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserherebought Ṁ1 of YES

The expected value is too good for me not to bet. -1 if incorrect, +3378 if correct.