Per reporting, the impasse between Sinwar and Netanyahu is the permanence of any agreed-upon ceasefire. Netanyahu wants the pause to be temporary to release the hostages, before resuming fighting to get his “total victory” over Hamas. Sinwar doesn’t want to consume his biggest bargaining chip without a permanent end to the war, and he wants to come out as the perceived victor. These two positions are irreconcilable.

Will the next agreed upon ceasefire include a number of days that the ceasefire is to last? This would effectively mean that Bibi effectively got his side in the tete-a-tete.

In previous rounds of negotiations, there was a US-led multistage plan which had a six-week ceasefire, and later stages which could have made the pause indefinite. This would Resolve YES, as the ceasefire agreement contained a finite number of days while “talks would begin between both parties for a more permanent cessation of hostilities”.

This market will extend until there is an agreed upon cessation of fighting. If the Israel:Hamas war is able to end without a ceasefire, through whatever means, this market will Resolve N/A. Market will extend as long as the war rages.