Will Taylor Swift announce her engagement (vs. it leaking)?
Will Taylor Swift announce her engagement (vs. it leaking)?
5
100Ṁ502026
51%
chance
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Will Taylor Swift announce her engagement herself, without TMZ leaking it first? Is Taylor Swift as good as she thinks she is at being secretive and sleuthy?
Resolves YES, if Taylor Swift’s engagement announcement in her own voice (via social media, or spoken out loud) comes before TMZ writes an article stating definitively (and correctly) that she’s engaged. Also Resolves YES if she gets both engaged and married before TMZ writes about her engagement, and Taylor announces both. Resolves NO if TMZ accurately publishes first.
We’re going with TMZ specifically, as I’ve seen that they generally get pop news correct, and have a slightly higher bar than many of the gossip rags.
Inspiration was @strutheo’s rumor market:
Market will extend as needed.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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