Will Taylor Swift get married before.....? [ADD ANSWERS, SEE RULES]
78
548
4.1k
4000
93%
Taylor Swift dies
92%
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
77%
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
75%
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
74%
China full-scale invades Taiwan
73%
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child
69%
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
66%
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
66%
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
64%
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
59%
The United States reports a Recession
57%
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
57%
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
55%
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"
53%
Travis Kelce Retires
50%
Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams
50%
Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams
50%
The UN has a new member state
49%
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
46%
The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency

Add fun answers! Would love the chronology of things that Manifold will think would happen, however to keep the market relatively organized:

I'll have Full Discretion in N/Aing answers that don't follow these Rules:

The Answer must be an event that can reasonably verifiably occur.

Aim to add answers that should start within 2%-98% as to make them interesting (this will especially be important when/if she does release a wedding date).

Answers can't be deterministic, approaching deterministic (i.e. the 2024-25 NFL Season starts), or have a known date of occurrence when added.

Answers shouldn't be repeats/variations of the verbiage of other answers, (i.e. I would N/A "The Washington Commanders clinch a playoff berth" as "The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth" is already there). This mostly applies to sports topics. Similar topics are allowed though as answers (i.e. NFL) as long as they don't overload the market (I'd probably warn in the comments). Additionally foreign policy questions may end up having similar wording (X invades Y) so this will probably lean towards leniency.

No answers that refer to either this market itself, or other answers (in singular or as a group), generically meta-answers.

Don't repeat these answers that already exist in other markets:

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-1c0bea571297

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-4d2cb3532798

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-c172eb997643

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-f1bb90be7133

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-bdee43f8f26a

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor-0af0f6cfe988

/strutheo/will-taylor-swift-get-married-befor

/strutheo/will-skate-4-release-before-taylor

Feel free to ask any questions (or if I N/A an answer you don't think is fair). I'll generally lean on the side of allowing things, especially if they are fun.

Banned Answer Topics

Meta-Answers

Other Clarifications

Answers occur from the start of this market (January 23rd 2024)

Answers that become Non-Achievable (i.e. Nate Silver dies so he can't win a WSOP bracelet) will not resolve "YES" until Taylor Swift marries.

If, Taylor Swift happens to never marry, before, um, yeah, results can still resolve case by case to "NO" or "N/A" (in the case neither become achievable). If she announces she is choosing not to marry, that would not count as resolution.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Related

I've added options for King Charles and Pope Francis losing their jobs.

The markets for which year those things will happen are here:

/SimonGrayson/in-which-year-will-king-charles-iii

/SimonGrayson/in-which-year-will-pope-francis-cea

What if the performance IS her wedding?

repostedbought Ṁ10 of China full-scale inv... YES

Sweet markets

More related questions