Will Taylor Swift get married before.....? [ADD ANSWERS, SEE RULES]
Taylor Swift dies
Puerto Rico becomes a (US) State
Nate Silver wins a WSOP Bracelet
Taylor Swift dates somebody who does not identify as a man
China full-scale invades Taiwan
Nine months prior to the birth of Taylor Swift’s first child
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II gets remarried
A major Philadelphia sports team (NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB) wins a championship
The Winds of Winter (Game of Thrones 6th Novel) is Published
A Non-QB wins the NFL MVP award
The United States reports a Recession
The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth
GameStop files for Bankruptcy
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II appears on "The Joe Rogan Experience"
Travis Kelce Retires
Songs on The Tortured Poets Department reach 10 Billion total streams
Songs on Midnights reach 20 Billion total streams
The UN has a new member state
Cannabis is Federally Legalized
The Same Party Controls the U.S. House, Senate and Presidency

Add fun answers! Would love the chronology of things that Manifold will think would happen, however to keep the market relatively organized:

I'll have Full Discretion in N/Aing answers that don't follow these Rules:

The Answer must be an event that can reasonably verifiably occur.

Aim to add answers that should start within 2%-98% as to make them interesting (this will especially be important when/if she does release a wedding date).

Answers can't be deterministic, approaching deterministic (i.e. the 2024-25 NFL Season starts), or have a known date of occurrence when added.

Answers shouldn't be repeats/variations of the verbiage of other answers, (i.e. I would N/A "The Washington Commanders clinch a playoff berth" as "The Carolina Panthers clinch a playoff berth" is already there). This mostly applies to sports topics. Similar topics are allowed though as answers (i.e. NFL) as long as they don't overload the market (I'd probably warn in the comments). Additionally foreign policy questions may end up having similar wording (X invades Y) so this will probably lean towards leniency.

No answers that refer to either this market itself, or other answers (in singular or as a group), generically meta-answers.

Don't repeat these answers that already exist in other markets:









Feel free to ask any questions (or if I N/A an answer you don't think is fair). I'll generally lean on the side of allowing things, especially if they are fun.

Banned Answer Topics


Other Clarifications

Answers occur from the start of this market (January 23rd 2024)

Answers that become Non-Achievable (i.e. Nate Silver dies so he can't win a WSOP bracelet) will not resolve "YES" until Taylor Swift marries.

If, Taylor Swift happens to never marry, before, um, yeah, results can still resolve case by case to "NO" or "N/A" (in the case neither become achievable). If she announces she is choosing not to marry, that would not count as resolution.

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I've added options for King Charles and Pope Francis losing their jobs.

The markets for which year those things will happen are here:



What if the performance IS her wedding?

repostedbought Ṁ10 of China full-scale inv... YES

Sweet markets

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