Why will I (@mattyb) leave California?
4
265Ṁ70
2031
20%
I don’t (I will die as a CA resident)
20%
A job (some new employer has hired me in a different locale spurring my move)
16%
Other
11%
No job (I’ve lost my job and can no longer afford CA, or have chosen to live somewhere else as a result of not having a steady income)
9%
Tired of CA (I am choosing to live in another place which currently appeals to me more)
6%
Family (moving to be closer to family)
6%
[Climate] Disaster (the big earthquake finally hit, a fire burnt down my house, the sea washed away my house, a rare Pacific hurricane…etc.)
6%
Love (moving to be closer to a romantic partner)
6%
California no longer exists (USA has fallen apart, California has merged with another state, California has broken apart into multiple states…etc.)

I’ll be as forthcoming as I possibly can be here, but I do want to maintain a degree of pseudonymity, so I won’t (e.g.) give my employers name, but I’ll describe them. Feel free to ask any questions that you have here.

There is a chance that multiple can be true. If I lost my job and fell in love, and moved from a combination of the two, I would likely Resolve them both 50%.

I count my residence as where I am registered to vote, where my W2 says that I live, and where my Drivers License lists as my address. All 3 should match (and currently do).

Market will extend as long as I’m a Californian. And I guess I’ll update this market as I go through my life’s events 🤷🏻‍♂️

Facts which may influence your betting:

  • I’ve moved to SF in 2018 (moved here for work, still holding the same job, basically). I work in tech, for a large Fortune 500 company. If I left my current job, I would try to find another one in the same area (SF Bay Area).

  • In 2021, I moved to Seattle during the pandemic. My main motivation for moving was that work didn’t require me to be in any locale, and I wanted a change. For that move, I would have Resolved “Tired of CA”. I moved back after about a year saying “I’m not leaving CA again”.

  • If I lost my job, I would not feel an immediate sense of financial urgency which would necessitate a move. If this lasted for multiple months, I would likely begin to panic.

  • My family really aren’t close. I moved out at 16 to go to boarding school and have been on my own largely since. I currently only see myself moving back to PA if they get seriously ill (both in their mid 60s and physically fine).

  • I really seldom date, and if I do it’s local (done distance, hated it). I am single now, and really not looking. Love should probably be close to 1%.

  • I am 30 years old, and lived the first 22 years of my life in various parts of PA, and the next 3 years in VA, outside of DC.

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