Where will I see a stranger wearing an Apple Vision Pro “in the wild” in 2024?
Where will I see a stranger wearing an Apple Vision Pro “in the wild” in 2024?
12
380Ṁ1326Jan 1
12%
In California
11%
In an office building
10%
On MUNI/BART/bus other public transportation (including in stations before fare gates)
10%
A firefighter/policeman/emt on duty
8%
In a passenger car (could be the driver or passenger)
8%
On the street/walking around
6%
In a park
For this to count as a stranger, it must not be someone that I know, must not be using my Vision Pro, or a Vision Pro owned by someone that I know. The second that I see one that qualifies, this Resolves YES.
I’ve seen a singular Vision Pro “in the wild” and it was on a plane, Resolving the previous market (seen below). Don’t add “on a plane”, I’ll N/A it. Add anything else, and feel free to get creative!
Facts about me:
I live in San Francisco and take public transit downtown multiple times a week.
I travel a few times a year, and wouldn’t be surprised if I go to NYC later this year.
I’m planning to go to Manifest.
The first time I tried this:
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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