State of the Union Bets [Tonight 9PM Eastern]
Basic
722
806k
resolved Mar 10
Resolved
YES
Biden will speak for more than an hour
Resolved
YES
Biden will get heckled or booed
Resolved
YES
Biden will wear a blue tie
Resolved
YES
Putin will be mentioned by name
Resolved
YES
Ukraine will be mentioned
Resolved
NO
Biden will mention both nuclear power and nuclear weaponry
Resolved
NO
"strong" will be said more than 5 times
Resolved
YES
Israel will be mentioned
Resolved
YES
Biden will include a dig aimed at Haley, Trump, or DeSantis
Resolved
NO
Trump will be mentioned by name
Resolved
YES
Biden will tell a story of 1 specific, non-celebrity American who is now dead (e.g. mass victim shooting, COVID patient…etc.)
Resolved
YES
Biden will mention the word "ceasefire."
Resolved
NO
The Supreme Court Justices clap in response to at least three things
Resolved
NO
Mike Johnson will clap when no one else is clapping 👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Resolved
NO
Somebody in the room screams "rationalussy"
Resolved
NO
Israel will be the first country (other than the US) mentioned
Resolved
NO
Biden says the word "fascist"
Resolved
NO
Someone says free Palestine (can be a protester)
Resolved
YES
Biden will say the word "folks" at least two times
Resolved
NO
Biden will use the term "Bidenomics"

The speech begins at 9 PM ET/ 6PM PT. You can watch the speech alongside this market and live chat at https://manifold.markets/tv

This market will close once the State of the Union has been concluded. I’ll probably wait until the speech is uploaded online to resolve a few of the more tedious ones.

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I wouldn't really describe this year's interruption as "making a fool of herself"

"strong" will be said more than 5 times

because this one was in quotes, I'm not using the other versions of the word.

wow, a bunch of these are left huh. what asshole left these here all this time 😡😤

@mattyb k, we done here. ✌️

dammit we should have had a market on how many times Kamala would stand up and clap

@ZaneMiller I had a market on how many times Mike Johnson would stand up and clap. It ended up being really boring since it was only 1 time. Last year McCarthy stood up and clapped about 20 times.

The whole contention issues are a result of those making options being lazy about specifying examples and criteria.

Things will work out better for you if you post an option and then comment on it with explicit criteria and examples, anticipating any contention.

If you have not done so, then you have forfeit your right to resolve in a certain direction ex-post and it is up to the mod/market owner to decide on the criteria after you missed.

@RanaG Stop the whining, for jesus christ!

@Mirek but but I'm a heathen

@RanaG the Obamacare one was pretty explicit to those that were betting on it imo. Maybe it should be up to the mod/owner to keep tabs on their markets and clarify items that need it (or N/a) in realtime? Instead of some arbitrary ruling hours after the fact

@kurt providing examples and criteria is good if you want your option to be resolved as you intended it to

@kurt it's also our responsibility as traders to keep creators in check to provide as much info as possible

@kurt I can’t blame anyone too much for this since I do it too sometimes but I’d suggest not shoveling more mana than you’re willing to lose into a very subjective option like this one. You should always keep in mind that the creator might disagree with you.

@Arky The problem is mr. smartass it is not very subjective. I'm listening to the speech, did I am hearing the name Obama? Yes, I sure did do! Let's go, 35k mana!!! Oh, wait, that is not the obama you meant to be said it? Oh, well, ok. Now the person making the sure bet is screwing like the goose without the poop shoot on a sunny day! How do you do? Not good. I am fighting for the #TradersRights because creators are sometimes dotards.

@Arky that's just not the right conclusion here. Creator should strive to have their resolution as objective as possible and that can happen by providing clear criteria and examples. Traders have a role to incentivise creators by settings and requesting standards to creation.

@RanaG I mean it's a massive prop bet market where every option is like two sentences max, there are going to be edge cases that are subjective. It's not possible to completely avoid it.

@Arky all options can be described in the description for anyone who wants to trade. It's not a big ask.

@RanaG In the past I submitted a suggestion in the Discord that there should be an easy way to click a button attached to an option and see all of the comments that replied to it. I think this would be very helpful for finding creator clarifications and resolution criteria. In a market like this one with hundreds of options being submitted by random users it actually would be very hard to put good resolution criteria for each one in the description.

@Arky Yeah, that would be incredibly useful. I've frequently found myself wanting to check the comments on a specific option like that.

If y'all had fun here, there's more prop bets for this Sunday's Oscars at 4 PT

And a whole dashboard

I haven't bet on this market at all, so I believe my opinion is unbiased: Obama and Obamacare are different things. Obama was not mentioned, but Obamacare was mentioned. Obamacare is named after Obama. If you mention someting named after X, you necessarily mention the name X. Therefore, the name Obama was mentioned in the speech, so the question should resolve YES.

@koadma no need to keep stoking the fire on this one. Matt made a decision and it's been resolved.

@shankypanky surely, i am allowed to give my opinion?

@koadma of course I don't mean that - it's just pretty contentious and heated even after the resolution ☹ I don't mean to seem that I'm discrediting your opinion.

@koadma Person who wins big is saying move along, nothing to see here, don't raise your voice!!!

@Mirek pretty unfair response but okay. ✌️

@shankypanky Not looking for for discrediting you! Happy international women's day!

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