2024 Oscars Prop Bets Live! πŸ†πŸŽ¬ 96th Academy Awards Ceremony Broadcast
Standard
287
αΉ€1.3m
resolved Mar 11
Resolved
YES
Music cuts off speech
Resolved
NO
Jimmy Kimmel goes out into the audience
Resolved
YES
Standing ovation
Resolved
YES
Red dress on stage
Resolved
YES
Winner mentions hometown
Resolved
YES
Someone mentions Taylor Swift
Resolved
YES
Someone thanks "the academy" in acceptance speech
Resolved
NO
A winner references getting drunk after the awards
Resolved
NO
Opening monologue is over 15 minutes
Resolved
NO
Any Best Actress nominee wears gold clothing (visible)
Resolved
YES
Winner pulls out speech on-stage
Resolved
YES
Winner speaks with foreign accent
Resolved
YES
"Barbenheimer" mentioned
Resolved
YES
Winner thanks spouse/partner
Resolved
NO
Someone says "ceasefire"
Resolved
YES
(At least) one person is on stage twice to accept two different awards
Resolved
NO
Someone says β€œfuck” (likely to be censored)
Resolved
NO
Winner thanks Netflix
Resolved
YES
Winner thanks God in an acceptance speech
Resolved
NO
Winner mentions climate change in an acceptance speech

Will make every effort to resolve each item in a timely manner based on available information from viewing the show, bookmakers, Wikipedia, X, and other sources. If there is no credible source, will resolve N/A. Some items will take longer to resolve than others to ensure resolution accuracy so please be patient.

96th Academy Awards

  • Official ABC broadcast only (unless otherwise specified)

  • No pre-show, interviews, red carpet or after-show (unless otherwise specified)

  • Questions with some ambiguity not added by the market creator may require additional direction from the user that added the question

  • Please have a good time!

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bought αΉ€800 Answer #d0a4f2e5cced YES

Jon Batiste performance should count

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwdhlWHt36Y

Either I'm not using the right prompts or AI is still so useless for simple things like this.

@NFL This is what I got from Perplexity, but not sure how much to trust it…: https://www.perplexity.ai/search/Did-the-Oscars-M.azTEd8RniKLjM0Zox3FA

@dglid For some reason for me it thought Chris Mortensen was in the memoriam, although he wasn't listed in the Wikipedia entry. So unreliable.

Winner mentions hometown
bought αΉ€800 Winner mentions home... YES

Kris Bowers was born in Los Angeles and mentions that he went to "LA Public Schools", which I think should count.
https://youtu.be/Hf48aDZrBG4?si=7Uv-suKsZtAOP50B&t=73

@houstonEuler Yes, thank you.

[DELETED]

NO NO NO. IF you are looking closely, you can see the penis slip out of the trousers during Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)!!!

Someone says "ceasefire"

Nobody actually says "ceasefire". Glazer on Gaza:

"Right now, we stand here as men who refute their Jewishness and the Holocaust being hijacked by an occupation, which has led to conflict for so many innocent people β€” whether the victims of October the 7th in Israel or the ongoing attack on Gaza β€” all the victims of this dehumanization… how do we resist?"

I don't recall anyone else bringing it up on stage. Pins clearly don't count.

@nikstar Yeah, this one seems pretty clear. β€œCalling for” is the one I argue can be done without explicitly saying the word ceasefire.

@MarkHamill calls for is yes, but says is no in my opinion.

bought αΉ€25 Answer #271f3f965427 YES

NYT agrees, also worn on stage

bought αΉ€450 Answer #71e8fc09355a YES

I'M SUCH A FUCKING MORON. OH MY GODDD. I BET NO ON THE THANK ONE FOR ACTORS WHEN I MEANT YES BYEEEE

@Will94fc I literally watched his speech twice to make sure I was right also 😭 I'm quitting manifold bye this is so sick

@Will94fc The dreaded Yes/No error. It gets us all eventually.

@Will94fc hey it's alright. We all do silly mistakes sometimes.

bought αΉ€100 Answer #e487eb80e437 YES

Let me make this one easy for you. I submitted this. A current presidential candidate was mentioned by name by Jimmy Kimmel. Read my note. It officially counts. This can resolve yes.

bought αΉ€100 Answer #e487eb80e437 YES

@Predictor I like the footnote

@NFL No ifs, ands, buts, or obamacares on this one. It’s very clearly defined. Let’s get it resolved ASAP.

Huh. I just made 3k on this market even though I never watched the ceremony, simply by time-decaying where that should be expected. It's a crude strategy but it worked surprisingly well.

@Shump plus i generally think "nothing ever happens" applies here. most things don't happen

@Ziddletwix I was kinda doing that strategy for the state of the union speech, and I got surprisingly close to even with my bets. This time the strategy was just that if something happened, there's like a 90% chance that somebody on Manifold would have noticed and bought it up to >85%

@traders Put a good dent in these tonight, but the last 15 or so will need a quick re-watch tomorrow morning just to confirm. Please stand by.

@NFL Sleepy time? You have work to do…