Nevada Caucus + Primary Mega-Market [Feb 6th & 8th]
US PoliticsPoliticsTrumpJoe BidenRepublican Party2024 Primaries2024 Republican Primaries2024 DNC PrimariesNevada
Basic
26
Ṁ14k
resolved Feb 9
Resolved
YES
[DNC] Biden wins all of the delegates
Resolved
YES
[RNC - Caucus] Trump gets all of the delegates
Resolved
YES
[RNC Primary] “None of these candidates” gets more than 40% of the vote (>= 0.4)
Resolved
YES
[RNC - Primary] Mike Pence gets more than 2% of the vote (>= 0.02)
Resolved
YES
[DNC] Marianne gets more than 2% of the vote (>= 0.02)
Resolved
YES
[all] Joe Biden will get the most total votes of any candidate (D or R)
Resolved
N/A
[RNC - Caucus] Nikki Haleys gets more than 1000 write-in votes
Resolved
N/A
[DNC] Dean Philips gets more than 1000 write-in votes
Resolved
NO
[RNC - Caucus] Binkley gets more than 1% (>= 0.01)
Resolved
NO
[DNC] Biden gets more than 95% of the vote
Resolved
NO
[RNC - Primary] Tim Scott gets more than 2% of the vote (>= 0.02)
Resolved
NO
[RNC - Primary] Nikki Haley wins the Primary

Your one-stop shop for the DNC and RNC Nevada contests. The schedule is as follows:

All results will be according to the NY Times.

Feel free to add more questions, but please clearly mark which race your market is applicable to. I will N/A anything not related to either of the primary events.

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[DNC] Biden wins all of the delegates
bought Ṁ500 [DNC] Biden wins all... YES

somehow the counting is still not at 90%. at least they gave Biden his delegates.

If this stays at 86% for much longer, I’ll resolve the other mostly obvious ones

[RNC Primary] “None of these candidates” gets more than 40% of the vote (>= 0.4)

This one is blatantly obvious, as it’s sitting at 63% while the vote is 86% counted. For the closer ones, let’s wait until we get to >=90/95% counted

[RNC - Primary] Nikki Haley wins the Primary

Resolves NO.

Haley loses Nevada GOP primary skipped by Trump to 'none of these candidates' (nbcnews.com)

[DNC] Dean Philips gets more than 1000 write-in votes
bought Ṁ1,000 [DNC] Dean Philips g... NO

Resolves NO since write-ins are not allowed. Or N/A

https://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/01/are-write-in-candidates-allowed-in-2024-nevada-caucus-or-primary/72430326007/

sold Ṁ2 [RNC Primary] “None ... NO

@nikki sigh the fun police said n/a

The Secretary of State’s office confirmed that write-ins are not allowed in Nevada primary and general elections, including the 2024 Presidential Preference Primary.

It’s prohibited under Nevada Revised Statute 293.270.

[RNC - Caucus] Binkley gets more than 1% (>= 0.01)

Was this meant to be for the caucus? Or is it counting write-in votes? It seems like Binkley isn't running in the primary.

@mattyb This should N/A

sold Ṁ4 [RNC - Primary] Nikk... YES

@TimothyJohnson5c16 that was meant for the caucus let me update it

[RNC - Caucus] Nikki Haleys gets more than 1000 write-in votes

That's not how caucusing works!

bought Ṁ60 [RNC - Caucus] Nikki... NO

@nikki I guess we can just predict NO?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 should probably be N/Aed

@nikki can you not speak out of turn for another candidate? are you only allowed to speak about Binkley or Trump? Also don’t they vote via secret ballot? Is there no write-in slot?

@mattyb No. Caucusing is all public, it's literally standing in a room. You need to register beforehand.

Also the Republicans seem to have disallowed writeins.

@nikki good points, resolved

[RNC - Caucus] Trump gets all of the delegates
bought Ṁ5 [RNC - Caucus] Trump... NO

would this mean that nobody would come second place? if this resolves YES I mean

@Bayesian someone will always come in second in a race, some times multiple people come in second!

the only cases where someone doesn’t come in second is when there’s only one person, or when everyone ties for first.

@mattyb okok yeah that makes sense

reposted

The first two contests are today:

  • Nikki vs. confused Nevada Trump voters voting for “None of these Candidates”

  • Biden vs. Marianne (with the potential for a Dean write-in campaign)

@mattyb Polls close in 30mins

[RNC Primary] “None of these candidates” gets more than 40% of the vote (>= 0.4)

>= 40%

@nikki good call out. went with >= 0.4

[RNC - Primary] Nikki Haley wins the Primary

Does this resolve NO if None of These Candidates gets the most votes and Nikki Haley is second?

Technically, it sounds like even then she would still be the winner: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/None_of_These_Candidates

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I will Resolve this NO if Nikki places second to “None of these Candidates”. That is the spirit of the question, yes.

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