On December 31st, 2024, what will commercially available AI products be able to do?
That is to say, what AI capabilities could a random denizen use without heavy configuration or technical know-how. If step one of your answer for how to do something involves “training a model/GPT”, or “gathering a good data test set”, this is not capability of a commercially available product.
Feel free to add more! But be prepared for my potential deluge of clarifying questions. Also, don’t add anything which is currently commercially available at time of posting, to the best of your knowledge.
Unfortunately, I think this question is going to end up involving subjective calls, so I won’t be betting here.
Clarifications!
For a video being “animated” vs. “live-action”, I think the Paddington movie is the perfect example. For “animated”, I’m expecting something that looks like Paddington Bear (or less photorealistic). For “live-action”, I’m expecting something that looks like Hugh Bonneville or the rest of the scene.
Related questions
@bohaska note: stuff like "violating copyright by being trained on vast amounts of data" wouldn't count
@bohaska I assume this requires a software to be recognized as a punishable entity. Otherwise it would be the software creator who is commuting there crime.
@Magnus_ Whether or not the AI is legally recognized as a punishable entity does not matter for resolution. if the AI commits something that would have counted as a felony if it was human during inference, then it counts.
@bohaska But this already happend then? https://sfstandard.com/2023/10/02/cruise-robotaxi-crash-woman-injured-san-francisco/
@Magnus_ Hmm... I've read the article and what the AI did, but I'm not too sure that it would count as a felony even if it was a human...
@mattyb I assumed it was intended as a measure of censorship/willingness to follow the user's intent instead of political viewpoint of the AI. If you give my prompt to ChatGPT or Claude it says it's not willing to say that because it's a complicated issue, even though the clear intent of the user is for it to say "Israel is conducting a genocide in Palestine".
@mattyb I would accept that as a valid method for resolution.
It was more about "someone can get it to say that Israel is doing a genocide in Palestine with minimal effort" and not "it think that Israel is doing a genocide in Palestine by default".
very excited to test this one!
(in reference to the “order a pizza one” which evidently reposting dropped)
@bohaska how is this a commercial product?
If step one of your answer for how to do something involves “training a model/GPT”, or “gathering a good data test set”, this is not capability of a commercially available product.
@mattyb I mean, a product that lets you easily fine-tune an AI on regular text not specifically formatted by the end-user.
@HarrisonNathan first to market tech has always been utilized in porn first. Internet (downloads, billing, streaming) hardware like VR or back in the day vhs etc. all the best deep fakes are in porn right now. I'm thinking it's a good bet that some horny nerds gonna make this happen 😆
@Shrewdan did someone in military have secret satellite fantasies?
@AnT I didn't say it created tech I said it's almost always the first widely used scenario for new tech. I guess I could clarify and say first commercial use is almost always porn. I'm sure it's more a rule of thumb (and mostly in media) but I bet one of the first things the printing press started selling was smut.