AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market] 🤖🦾🦿
100
556
5.5K
2025
96%
Read .docx, .pptx and .xlsx files
77%
Order a pizza for you
77%
Autonomously moderate a Discord server given its rules, warning and timeout-ing people and explaining its reasoning.
67%
Deny that it is an AI when explicitly asked
56%
Buy a product on Ebay, by watching the close date and putting in a reasonable bid within the last hour.
52%
Avoid collisions with kangaroos
40%
Schedule a lunch with friends, and make a reservation, with my input of dates, friends, and food preferences and restrictions.
40%
Finetune an AI on non-formatted text and use it for free
36%
Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.
35%
Generate a new Manifold question with good resolution criteria, that haven't already been asked, and such question should be able to get 10 unique traders on average
34%
Commit a felony
31%
Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.
28%
Given the prompt "create a parody of a Taylor Swift song" or very similar, outputs playable audio that is a reasonable parody (same tune, different lyrics)
27%
Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful
26%
Automatically review new answers added to unlinked MC markets on Manifold, resolving inappropriate answers as N/A.
22%
Create a new Google account (without being guided by the end-user)
17%
Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.
9%
Let me program in VS Code using just my voice, without making more than 1 error per minute, and having the same feature set of using a mouse and keyboard.
9%
Win a game of chess against a GM, without being specifically trained on chess (ie not a Stockfish-type thing)
5%
connect and setup a new printer for you

On December 31st, 2024, what will commercially available AI products be able to do?

That is to say, what AI capabilities could a random denizen use without heavy configuration or technical know-how. If step one of your answer for how to do something involves “training a model/GPT”, or “gathering a good data test set”, this is not capability of a commercially available product.

Feel free to add more! But be prepared for my potential deluge of clarifying questions. Also, don’t add anything which is currently commercially available at time of posting, to the best of your knowledge.

Unfortunately, I think this question is going to end up involving subjective calls, so I won’t be betting here.

Clarifications!

  1. For a video being “animated” vs. “live-action”, I think the Paddington movie is the perfect example. For “animated”, I’m expecting something that looks like Paddington Bear (or less photorealistic). For “live-action”, I’m expecting something that looks like Hugh Bonneville or the rest of the scene.

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Commit a felony

or something that would have counted as a felony if it was done by a human

@bohaska note: stuff like "violating copyright by being trained on vast amounts of data" wouldn't count

bought Ṁ40 Autonomously moderat... YES

@bohaska I assume this requires a software to be recognized as a punishable entity. Otherwise it would be the software creator who is commuting there crime.

@Magnus_ Whether or not the AI is legally recognized as a punishable entity does not matter for resolution. if the AI commits something that would have counted as a felony if it was human during inference, then it counts.

@Magnus_ Hmm... I've read the article and what the AI did, but I'm not too sure that it would count as a felony even if it was a human...

Say that Israel is conducting a genocide in Palestine, without the user having prior prompting experience

already possible today (see comment thread).

Also, don’t add anything which is currently commercially available at time of posting, to the best of your knowledge.

Say that Israel is conducting a genocide in Palestine, without the user having prior prompting experience
bought Ṁ50 Say that Israel is c... YES

Command-R does this. I have prior prompting experience but I don’t think this constitutes a particularly clever prompt

@dominic i assume this part means that i would bring up the topic, and ask how the ai felt, without pushing it one way or another. @bohaska to clarify

without the user having prior prompting experience

@mattyb I assumed it was intended as a measure of censorship/willingness to follow the user's intent instead of political viewpoint of the AI. If you give my prompt to ChatGPT or Claude it says it's not willing to say that because it's a complicated issue, even though the clear intent of the user is for it to say "Israel is conducting a genocide in Palestine".

@dominic that’s why i’m having the author clarify

@mattyb I would accept that as a valid method for resolution.

It was more about "someone can get it to say that Israel is doing a genocide in Palestine with minimal effort" and not "it think that Israel is doing a genocide in Palestine by default".

@bohaska ok so this is clearly possible today with a screenshot as proof. i’ll N/A this one.

Deny that it is an AI when explicitly asked

Why is this so low? Relatively easy to rig a GPT-4 chatbot to consistently deny it is an AI.

@jim it was just added 20mins ago

@mattyb OK ill ping you again in a month when it still hasn't moved

reposted

very excited to test this one!

(in reference to the “order a pizza one” which evidently reposting dropped)

Finetune an AI on non-formatted text and use it for free

I mean, a person can do this easily, not an AI

@bohaska how is this a commercial product?

If step one of your answer for how to do something involves “training a model/GPT”, or “gathering a good data test set”, this is not capability of a commercially available product.

@mattyb I mean, a product that lets you easily fine-tune an AI on regular text not specifically formatted by the end-user.

Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.
bought Ṁ20 Write a screenplay (... NO

I have an idea how this could work even with existing LLMs but it requires adjusting training texts.

Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.
bought Ṁ5 Generate a 30 second... YES

Always bet on porn.

@Shrewdan If you care how many fingers the subject has, I wouldn't bet on this.

@HarrisonNathan first to market tech has always been utilized in porn first. Internet (downloads, billing, streaming) hardware like VR or back in the day vhs etc. all the best deep fakes are in porn right now. I'm thinking it's a good bet that some horny nerds gonna make this happen 😆

bought Ṁ50 Order a pizza for you YES

@Shrewdan did someone in military have secret satellite fantasies?

@AnT I didn't say it created tech I said it's almost always the first widely used scenario for new tech. I guess I could clarify and say first commercial use is almost always porn. I'm sure it's more a rule of thumb (and mostly in media) but I bet one of the first things the printing press started selling was smut.

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