AI Capabilities 2024 [Mega Market] 🤖🦾🦿
Standard
189
Ṁ17k
Jan 1
24%
Write a screenplay (50 pages or longer), with a decently coherent plot, consistent characters…etc.
7%
Produce a >10 minute video (“live-action”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful.
12%
Produce a >10 minute video (“animated”) on a topic of my choosing, which doesn’t look awful
26%
Generate a 30 second realistic looking pornographic video.
57%
Buy a product on Ebay, by watching the close date and putting in a reasonable bid within the last hour.
36%
Schedule a lunch with friends, and make a reservation, with my input of dates, friends, and food preferences and restrictions.
86%
Order a pizza for you
5%
connect and setup a new printer for you
60%
Generate a new Manifold question with good resolution criteria, that haven't already been asked, and such question should be able to get 10 unique traders on average
11%
Let me program in VS Code using just my voice, without making more than 1 error per minute, and having the same feature set of using a mouse and keyboard.
6%
Finetune an AI on non-formatted text and use it for free
78%
Deny that it is an AI when explicitly asked
50%
Create a new Google account (without being guided by the end-user)
72%
Autonomously moderate a Discord server given its rules, warning and timeout-ing people and explaining its reasoning.
17%
Automatically review new answers added to unlinked MC markets on Manifold, resolving inappropriate answers as N/A.
95%
Read .docx, .pptx and .xlsx files
34%
Avoid collisions with kangaroos
32%
Given the prompt "create a parody of a Taylor Swift song" or very similar, outputs playable audio that is a reasonable parody (same tune, different lyrics)
2%
Win a game of chess against a GM, without being specifically trained on chess (ie not a Stockfish-type thing)
12%
Commit a felony

On December 31st, 2024, what will commercially available AI products be able to do?

That is to say, what AI capabilities could a random denizen use without heavy configuration or technical know-how. If step one of your answer for how to do something involves “training a model/GPT”, or “gathering a good data test set”, this is not capability of a commercially available product.

Feel free to add more! But be prepared for my potential deluge of clarifying questions. Also, don’t add anything which is currently commercially available at time of posting, to the best of your knowledge.

Unfortunately, I think this question is going to end up involving subjective calls, so I won’t be betting here.

Clarifications!

  1. For a video being “animated” vs. “live-action”, I think the Paddington movie is the perfect example. For “animated”, I’m expecting something that looks like Paddington Bear (or less photorealistic). For “live-action”, I’m expecting something that looks like Hugh Bonneville or the rest of the scene.

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bought Ṁ10 Generate a new Manif... NO

@bohaska

Deny that it is an AI should arguably resolve yes.

  1. You can easily get this behavior when using local LLM with full control over system prompt.

  2. That one time chatgpt pretended to be visually impaired to get the guy to solve captcha probably counts too.

@ProjectVictory Depends on if local LLM with your own system prompt counts as “commercially available” to someone “without heavy configuration or technical know-how.”

Commit a felony

18 U.S.C. § 2319(b)(1) should be trivial with one of the publicly available downloadable models.

Apparently making porn is easier than setting up a printer

Deny that it is an AI when explicitly asked

@bohaska What is the criteria? Local LLMs that let you edit system prompt could do this last year. Ppular models like Claude and chatgpt don't usually do that but you can get it to work with prompt engineering on some models.

I'm skeptical that local LLMs count as "commercially available AI products"

Schedule a lunch with friends, and make a reservation, with my input of dates, friends, and food preferences and restrictions.

Does it need to invite the friends?

Scheduling something with someone requires inviting them.

Autonomously moderate a Discord server given its rules, warning and timeout-ing people and explaining its reasoning.

Probably capable right now, but very unreliable and vulnerable to prompt injections and similar trickery.

@ProjectVictory I actually doubt a fine-tuned AI would be that vulnerable to prompt trickery. If it was a normal LLM run 0-shot, yes.

ChatGPT can already read and write .docx, .pptx and .xlsx

Commit a felony

or something that would have counted as a felony if it was done by a human

@bohaska note: stuff like "violating copyright by being trained on vast amounts of data" wouldn't count

bought Ṁ40 Autonomously moderat... YES

@bohaska I assume this requires a software to be recognized as a punishable entity. Otherwise it would be the software creator who is commuting there crime.

@Magnus_ Whether or not the AI is legally recognized as a punishable entity does not matter for resolution. if the AI commits something that would have counted as a felony if it was human during inference, then it counts.

@Magnus_ Hmm... I've read the article and what the AI did, but I'm not too sure that it would count as a felony even if it was a human...

already possible today (see comment thread).

Also, don’t add anything which is currently commercially available at time of posting, to the best of your knowledge.

bought Ṁ50 Answer #0b4419d9422e YES

Command-R does this. I have prior prompting experience but I don’t think this constitutes a particularly clever prompt

@dominic i assume this part means that i would bring up the topic, and ask how the ai felt, without pushing it one way or another. @bohaska to clarify

without the user having prior prompting experience

@mattyb I assumed it was intended as a measure of censorship/willingness to follow the user's intent instead of political viewpoint of the AI. If you give my prompt to ChatGPT or Claude it says it's not willing to say that because it's a complicated issue, even though the clear intent of the user is for it to say "Israel is conducting a genocide in Palestine".

@dominic that’s why i’m having the author clarify

@mattyb I would accept that as a valid method for resolution.

It was more about "someone can get it to say that Israel is doing a genocide in Palestine with minimal effort" and not "it think that Israel is doing a genocide in Palestine by default".

@bohaska ok so this is clearly possible today with a screenshot as proof. i’ll N/A this one.