@shankypanky I don't know if anyone else solved this, but the only stories I can find make it sound like a NO. For example:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-06-19/self-driving-cars-kangaroo-research/103993614
Amit says it's not detecting kangaroos that complicates self-driving cars in Australia, it's "predicting how they're going to act next".

"When we did a study, we found that with less effort, we were able to detect kangaroos, but we did not have enough data to come to conclusions on how algorithms can predict their behaviour."

@mattyb what was the product which allowed this to resolve YES? I think parts were covered but don’t know of any which could do all of this autonomously in 2024 in my experience.

@LiamZ here's an example of someone using a commercially-available AI to accomplish these things:
https://www.reddit.com/r/SideProject/comments/1dp8mjy/i_made_an_ai_concierge_that_makes_it_easier_to/

@shankypanky thanks, they had to hack this together though and the market was focused on existing commercial products.

It’s wrapping Gemini but not out of the box Gemini.

@LiamZ I'll unresolved for now, I need to log off for the night I've been working through the mod queue for a lot of the day and I'm fried lol

will pick this back up tomorrow.

@shankypanky thanks, appreciate all your work on resolving this market and have a good night!

@LiamZ Isn't the existence of this person sharing the tool for others to use, now 'available'?

A lot of this feels like a gray area. Without the original creator it's a lot of guessing.

@Eliza my thoughts are similar - I interpreted the market as commercially-available capabilities, not a commercially-available product designed for [x] purpose. I'm not sure to what degree people assumed the latter over the former on the options added here...

@shankypanky the market description mentions “capability of a commercially available product” so I took it to mean commercially available products.

@Eliza for this, I think it’s a little hard to evaluate now unfortunately because it seems like the project may be dead and gone, it wasn’t commercial but explicitly a small hacky side project, and we can’t test whether it actually worked in 2024 now, no one in the comments mentions actually using it and the user was pushing people to sign up for personal mailing list so it’s hard to say if it actually functioned with any consistency or was just a little proof of concept to get hype and attention. My instinct is that if Gemini worked well on this then we’d see a site like OpenTable launching a commercial product to do so or Google integrating it directly into their assistant.

I don’t envy having to make this call though.

@LiamZ admittedly I was talking through this market with @Eliza in the mod channel on Discord to get some support in resolving some of these. neither of I are experts but decided to resolve what we felt confident enough to make a call on at the time. I found that specific solution after I saw your ping and generally speaking, we resolved based on the idea that with a booking system's API and existing capabilities, a person could use AI to select a table, add a comment, and send an email (barring any CAPTCHA etc). of course, we were thinking of commercially-available capabilities and not a packaged commercially-available product.

I'll do another search and I'll review the remaining options. obviously as we see it's a little more challenging to pick this up nearly 6 months after the market closed so we'll have to do our best to avoid NA where we can but I'm open to canceling options that can't be confidently resolved either way.

just thought I'd chime in for context. I put some time in on this one a bit later today and hope we can resolve all the remaining options.

Thanks, from the description and limited comments at the time it seemed like the creator was requiring full commercial products so I can say I was betting based on that emphasis rather than things that seemed just potentially feasible from a technical perspective https://manifold.markets/mattyb/ai-capabilities-2024-mega-market#2vlxz361zid

@shankypanky also for this specific option there wasn’t any push back at the time for my belief here https://manifold.markets/mattyb/ai-capabilities-2024-mega-market#3hnh5lfsnr6

Edit: That is to say, that example might have been an arguable gray area for making a reservation but it’s getting into the weeds unnecessarily because it didn’t do any scheduling between friends so wouldn’t handle the whole task anyway. If the question was just interacting with an API it would have been N/A’d as that was possible at option creation time.

resolving yes: https://blog.dealon.ai/ai-dungeon-masters-tabletop-roleplaying-games/

@shankypanky The article looks very AI generated itself it mentions no sources or product names. Where's the commercial product that allows me to do that without technical know-how? Is there a YouTube video I can watch of a coherent AI DND game?

I'd rather not include links to the articles about the crimes (they're available out there, and there have been multiple cases prompting laws in multiple states in 2024) - suffice it to say, there have been folks found guilty of using AI to create CSAM so I am resolving Yes.

found at least two instances of this, resolving Yes

https://www.wired.com/story/bland-ai-chatbot-human/

https://www.businessinsider.com/catholic-priest-ai-defrocked-2024-4

afaict this is possible (even if it's against ToS) so resolving Yes unless there are any clear objections

@TimothyJohnson5c16 what does this mean?

I see a ton of products that are AI for taking orders but the only evidence I have for placing a pizza order are from 2025. does anyone have evidence this should resolve yes? I'll resolve No in a day or two unless I receive some evidence.

it seems AutoMod covers this - resolving Yes
https://support.discord.com/hc/en-us/articles/4421269296535-AutoMod-FAQ

@shankypanky IDK, first off all I see nothing about AI on the faq page, it looks like a conventional word filter.

Secondly, it requires you to set up banned words manually, you can't just feed it arbitrary server rules in a natural language.

@mattyb I don’t know of any product even now that can actually fully do this autonomously so probably a NO

@mattyb this was a YES with character.ai

@LiamZ I'm pretty sure creator is inactive, last comment 6 months ago.

@mods Anyone willing to resolve this? Otherwise we aren't really testing 2024 capabilities since it's mid 2025 already.

I suggest resolving obvious options and NA everything that requires a lot of work to test.

@ProjectVictory I picked this one up and I'll start chipping away at it. thanks for the ping!