The problem here is "majority". If this was people under 30 or maybe even 40 I'd vote "yes", but I don't see older people adopting this as a majority and of course this means a majority of people get cars that support this. I am probably gonna run my current cast till it's dead. Many others by used cars. Current cars would need to be largely off the roads for this to come true.

What about a phone with a drivers license in the case?

@eliot Good question! No - I think the condition should be that all important information and keys will be accessible digitally, from the phone only w/ no additional cards.

FWIW, I think Car Keys are probably the long pole here, rather than Driver's Licenses, Credit Cards or House Keys.

@Hyperstition there are 4 states that allow licenses on iPhone already and 2034 is a long ways off!

@mattsly add another decade and not even the phone will be required for payment and ID.

Feel like this is unlikely on the grounds that most states will still want citizens to carry physical identification (for a variety of reasons).