By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?
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2034
27%
chance

Currently most of us leave the house with phone, wallet and keys.

Increasingly, phones are able to act as both a wallet and keys.

This will resolve to Yes if there is a reputable survey that demonstrates that the majority of Americans adults (18+) use their phones as their primary method of payment and keys (car and house) and answer some version of the question

“When you leave your home, what combination of phone, wallet and keys do you usually take?”

with the answer “Phones only”

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How would you judge this if someone doesn't take house keys with them, but leaves a garage door opener in their car (which they don't carry with them when getting out of the car)? This implies they don't lock the door from the garage into the house.

bought Ṁ20 NO

The problem here is "majority". If this was people under 30 or maybe even 40 I'd vote "yes", but I don't see older people adopting this as a majority and of course this means a majority of people get cars that support this. I am probably gonna run my current cast till it's dead. Many others by used cars. Current cars would need to be largely off the roads for this to come true.

bought Ṁ100 YES

What about a phone with a drivers license in the case?

@eliot Good question! No - I think the condition should be that all important information and keys will be accessible digitally, from the phone only w/ no additional cards.

FWIW, I think Car Keys are probably the long pole here, rather than Driver's Licenses, Credit Cards or House Keys.

@Hyperstition there are 4 states that allow licenses on iPhone already and 2034 is a long ways off!

@mattsly add another decade and not even the phone will be required for payment and ID.

Feel like this is unlikely on the grounds that most states will still want citizens to carry physical identification (for a variety of reasons).

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