Will at least half of Americans (aged 30-40) possess crypto currency by 2060?
63%
chance

Resolves YES if a credible argument can be made using solid evidence. With a lot of wiggle room given to the YES side. That is to say, there does not need to be a study specifically targeted at adults aged 30-40. If it seems likely that a majority of adults possess crypto currency, this resolves YES. This market will only resolve NO if it is very clear that the number has never approached 50%.

This only counts if those people generally intend to benefit from possessing the coins, either from selling them or spending them. If there is a marketing stunt that involves giving a tiny amount of crypto to each American, or something similar, it doesn't count.

This question intentionally does not specify a specific crypto currency. It will count any currency based on the blockchain that fits the spirit of the term "crypto currency" as it is used today.

As I will be judging the question's criteria favoritably towards YES, I will not be allowed to buy YES. However, I will be allowed to buy NO stocks if I so choose. I will not be allowed to sell NO stocks, they will be locked in until resolution.

Get แน€600 play money
Sort by:

Do they need to hold private keys? Or is an IOU of some kind (exchange, ETF, etc.) OK?

@Undox If it is specifically them who have a legal claim to the ownership of a portion of a specific assortment of coins, then that counts. I think that description describes ETFs. Betting someone on whether or not a cryptocurrency's price will go up without holding the underlying asset doesn't count.

@Tumbles Some questions:

  • Does "by 2060" here mean "on Jan 1 2060" or "any time before 2060"?

  • Does owning a Bitcoin ETF count? What if it's owned indirectly, as part of a portfolio that invests in multiple ETFs including a Bitcoin one?

@BoltonBailey Any time before 2060. Owning a bitcoin ETF would count as long as the ETF holds the crypto. Owning indirectly counts. If there comes a day where most Americans have bitcoin in their retirement profile, this market resolves YES.

@Tumbles Thanks! I put 200M in a limit order at 18% if you're interested.

I just edited the description to ban myself from selling NO stocks.

More related questions