Will approximately 80% of Turnitin's engineering workforce be eliminated by October 18, 2024 due to generative AI?
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resolved Dec 16
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NO

On April 18, 2023, Chris Caren stated that in 18 months, his company would need approximately 20% of its current engineering workforce due to increasing productivity from generative AI tools. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDC1ceJbdPg&t=1316s

This market will resolve YES if 80% of Turnitin's engineering workforce is eliminated, and the elimination can be directly tied to generative AI. This can be determined either through a direct acknowledgment from the company, or from strong evidence, such as the company adopting a tool that has been demonstrably shown to be capable of replacing engineers.

This market will resolve NO if Turnitin's engineering workforce is not reduced by 80%, or if a reduction occurs that is not attributable to generative AI.

It is not clear how many engineering employees Turnitin employed at the time of this statement, beyond Chris's statement of "a few hundred". If an exact percentage reduction cannot be determined, the spirit of the question will be followed. For example, if Turnitin releases a statement saying that a significant majority of its engineering workforce has been laid off due to generative AI, this will resolve YES.

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Please resolve this market.

@CharlesFoster @mods Can you assist here?

I think 80% of Turnitin's workforce will be eliminated, but only because the rise of generative AI made their core plagiarism detection service irrelevant and forced them to provide nonfunctional "AI detectors" instead

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